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Background <p>Abrupt declines in vegetation productivity risk irreversible transitions. However, the magnitude of such declines (abruptness)—a key determinant ranging from nonlinear reversible transitions to nonlinear hysteresis transitions—remains poorly quantified.</p> Methods <p>Using two long-term satellite datasets (VODCA and GIMMS NDVI3g), we quantified the abruptness of global vegetation productivity declines and evaluated the early warning performance of resilience indicators, including autocorrelation at the first lag (ACF1) and variance. We further investigated how climate, soil, vegetation, and human activities regulate abruptness across gradients of early&#xa0;warning capacity.</p> Results <p>Hotspots of high abruptness were identified in South America, Africa, and central Eurasia. ACF1 exhibited strong but regionally variable early&#xa0;warning signals, with peak performance in regions of intermediate vegetation productivity (0.88 ≤ VOD &lt; 1.18). In these regions, intensified interactions among vegetation, climate, soil, and human activities acted to amplify abruptness. In contrast, the early&#xa0;warning capacity of ACF1 declined in both low- and high-productivity regions.</p> Conclusions <p>These findings establish ACF1 as a context-dependent early warning of abrupt declines in vegetation productivity, advancing targeted resilience-based management of vulnerable ecosystems under ongoing global change.</p>

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How resilience signals abrupt declines in vegetation productivity: globally uneven yet predictable

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月30日

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  • Maohong Wei,
  • Xue Tang,
  • Hailing Li,
  • Lin Zhu,
  • Weiqing Meng,
  • Jianfeng Feng

摘要

Background

Abrupt declines in vegetation productivity risk irreversible transitions. However, the magnitude of such declines (abruptness)—a key determinant ranging from nonlinear reversible transitions to nonlinear hysteresis transitions—remains poorly quantified.

Methods

Using two long-term satellite datasets (VODCA and GIMMS NDVI3g), we quantified the abruptness of global vegetation productivity declines and evaluated the early warning performance of resilience indicators, including autocorrelation at the first lag (ACF1) and variance. We further investigated how climate, soil, vegetation, and human activities regulate abruptness across gradients of early warning capacity.

Results

Hotspots of high abruptness were identified in South America, Africa, and central Eurasia. ACF1 exhibited strong but regionally variable early warning signals, with peak performance in regions of intermediate vegetation productivity (0.88 ≤ VOD < 1.18). In these regions, intensified interactions among vegetation, climate, soil, and human activities acted to amplify abruptness. In contrast, the early warning capacity of ACF1 declined in both low- and high-productivity regions.

Conclusions

These findings establish ACF1 as a context-dependent early warning of abrupt declines in vegetation productivity, advancing targeted resilience-based management of vulnerable ecosystems under ongoing global change.