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Background <p>Long-term spatio-temporal analyses of influenza in coastal mega-cities remain limited. This study explores influenza dynamics in Tianjin, China (2010–2023) to inform prevention strategies.</p> Methods <p>The data was based on case data from Tianjin (2010–2023) and the Tianjin Statistical Yearbook. Temporal trends, spatial auto-correlation (global and local Moran’s I), and spatio-temporal clusters (scan statistics) were assessed.</p> Results <p>From 2010 to 2023, Tianjin reported a cumulative total of 195,426 influenza cases. The eastern region displayed the top three prevalence indices among the sixteen districts. Spatial auto-correlation analyses indicated that the evolution of influenza incidence rates in Tianjin follows a pattern of being “high along the eastern coast”. The analysis of spatio-temporal scanning identified the most significant cluster in eastern Tianjin, occurring from December 2017 to May 2019. This cluster covered four districts with a relative risk (RR) of 7.73 and log likelihood ratio (LLR) of 6597.49 (<i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). Additionally, a similar cluster emerged in the eastern region of Tianjin from December 2019 to December 2023, covering three districts (RR: 27.41; LLR: 74011.43; <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001).</p> Conclusions <p>Mega-city influenza prevention prioritizes high-economic-activity zones. Coastal mega-cities target influenza spread in old-new economic transition areas.</p>

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Spatio-temporal analysis of influenza in old-new economic transition areas of coastal mega-cities: evidence from China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月3日

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  • Ji Li,
  • Zihan Mei,
  • Lin Li,
  • Xiaochun Dong,
  • Yue Li,
  • Zhengkun Liu,
  • Jinyue Yuan,
  • Xiaohan Sun,
  • Xiangyu Yan,
  • Ying Zhang,
  • Chunxia Cao

摘要

Background

Long-term spatio-temporal analyses of influenza in coastal mega-cities remain limited. This study explores influenza dynamics in Tianjin, China (2010–2023) to inform prevention strategies.

Methods

The data was based on case data from Tianjin (2010–2023) and the Tianjin Statistical Yearbook. Temporal trends, spatial auto-correlation (global and local Moran’s I), and spatio-temporal clusters (scan statistics) were assessed.

Results

From 2010 to 2023, Tianjin reported a cumulative total of 195,426 influenza cases. The eastern region displayed the top three prevalence indices among the sixteen districts. Spatial auto-correlation analyses indicated that the evolution of influenza incidence rates in Tianjin follows a pattern of being “high along the eastern coast”. The analysis of spatio-temporal scanning identified the most significant cluster in eastern Tianjin, occurring from December 2017 to May 2019. This cluster covered four districts with a relative risk (RR) of 7.73 and log likelihood ratio (LLR) of 6597.49 (P < 0.001). Additionally, a similar cluster emerged in the eastern region of Tianjin from December 2019 to December 2023, covering three districts (RR: 27.41; LLR: 74011.43; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Mega-city influenza prevention prioritizes high-economic-activity zones. Coastal mega-cities target influenza spread in old-new economic transition areas.