<p>As a high-incidence region of brucellosis in China, the incidence pattern of brucellosis in Ningxia shows a significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity, thus, it is of significance to allocate the differentiated control strategies in achieving the objective for brucellosis prevention and control under limited health resources. To address this gap, in this paper, we propose a two-patch SIV sheep brucellosis model to characterize the spatial-temporal heterogeneity and vaccination. Theoretically, the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$R_{0}$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are discussed respectively. By utilizing the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the optimal control solution is derived. Numerically, the model is calibrated by using estimated sheep brucellosis data from Ningxia during 2010-2019, and model fitting result is well consistent with actual data. Then, optimal control theory is applied to develop differentiated control strategies based on the risk of each area. Cross-regional collaborative combined control strategies should be recommended. Increasing of the vaccination rate for susceptible sheep and decreasing of the migration between high-risk patch and low-risk patch are the most effective control strategies. These results may provide a quantitative basis and reference for the precise control strategy and transportation supervision of brucellosis for different risk areas in Ningxia.</p>

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Differentiated optimal control strategy of brucellosis in Ningxia, China: insights from a two-patch dynamical model

  • Changsheng Zhai,
  • Yarong Liu,
  • Yu Zhao,
  • Hongju Duan

摘要

As a high-incidence region of brucellosis in China, the incidence pattern of brucellosis in Ningxia shows a significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity, thus, it is of significance to allocate the differentiated control strategies in achieving the objective for brucellosis prevention and control under limited health resources. To address this gap, in this paper, we propose a two-patch SIV sheep brucellosis model to characterize the spatial-temporal heterogeneity and vaccination. Theoretically, the basic reproduction number R 0 $R_{0}$ , the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are discussed respectively. By utilizing the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the optimal control solution is derived. Numerically, the model is calibrated by using estimated sheep brucellosis data from Ningxia during 2010-2019, and model fitting result is well consistent with actual data. Then, optimal control theory is applied to develop differentiated control strategies based on the risk of each area. Cross-regional collaborative combined control strategies should be recommended. Increasing of the vaccination rate for susceptible sheep and decreasing of the migration between high-risk patch and low-risk patch are the most effective control strategies. These results may provide a quantitative basis and reference for the precise control strategy and transportation supervision of brucellosis for different risk areas in Ningxia.