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<p>We established a SEIV dynamic model to simulate the epidemiological trend of brucellosis in six Xinjiang prefectures from 2008 to 2018 and predicted that the number of new human brucellosis cases over the next 10 years will increase steadily. The results of MAPE and RMSPE illustrated that the model predictions are satisfactory. Under the current preventive and control measures, the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13662_2025_3993_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$R_{0}$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> of human brucellosis in the six Xinjiang prefectures is greater than 5, with the Altay having the highest at 7.91 (95%&#xa0;CI: 7.05-8.70) and Yili having the lowest at 5.08 (95%&#xa0;CI: 4.58-5.68). It indicated that the epidemic cannot be eradicated, and the epidemiological severity ranks in descending order as Altay, Bayingolin, Bortala, Tacheng, Changji and Yili. Sensitivity analysis of <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13662_2025_3993_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$R_{0}$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> confirmed that increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible cattle/sheep and the slaughter rate of infected cattle/sheep are effective measures to contain the spread of brucellosis.</p>

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Dynamic modeling to predict the epidemiological trend of human brucellosis in six Xinjiang prefectures from 2008 to 2018

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月30日

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  • Songsong Xie,
  • Pengwei Lou,
  • Yuting Huang,
  • Jiandong Yang,
  • Feng Zhao,
  • Jiabo Xu,
  • Xiangwei Wu,
  • Hui Zhang

摘要

We established a SEIV dynamic model to simulate the epidemiological trend of brucellosis in six Xinjiang prefectures from 2008 to 2018 and predicted that the number of new human brucellosis cases over the next 10 years will increase steadily. The results of MAPE and RMSPE illustrated that the model predictions are satisfactory. Under the current preventive and control measures, the basic reproduction number R 0 $R_{0}$ of human brucellosis in the six Xinjiang prefectures is greater than 5, with the Altay having the highest at 7.91 (95% CI: 7.05-8.70) and Yili having the lowest at 5.08 (95% CI: 4.58-5.68). It indicated that the epidemic cannot be eradicated, and the epidemiological severity ranks in descending order as Altay, Bayingolin, Bortala, Tacheng, Changji and Yili. Sensitivity analysis of R 0 $R_{0}$ confirmed that increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible cattle/sheep and the slaughter rate of infected cattle/sheep are effective measures to contain the spread of brucellosis.