<p>In this work, we present a mathematical framework that captures the dynamic behavior of the simultaneous propagation of two strains of COVID-19. We apply the next-generation matrix method to compute the basic reproduction ratio <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13662_2025_3901_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="25" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\mathscr{R}_{0}$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. We investigate the stability of the model at each of the feasible equilibria. To validate our theoretical results, we have conducted numerical simulations. It is observed that if <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13662_2025_3901_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="54" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>≤</mo> <mn>1</mn> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\mathscr{R}_{0} \leq 1$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, eventually there will be no disease. However, if <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13662_2025_3901_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="53" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>></mo> <mn>1</mn> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\mathscr{R}_{0} > 1$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, a competition between the two COVID-19 strains will occur, and the more infectious variant will survive while the other disappears.</p>

Dynamics of simultaneous propagation of two COVID-19 strains

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2025年2月10日

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Padma Bhushan Borah,
Kaushik Dehingia,
Hemanta Kr. Sarmah,
Homan Emadifar

摘要

In this work, we present a mathematical framework that captures the dynamic behavior of the simultaneous propagation of two strains of COVID-19. We apply the next-generation matrix method to compute the basic reproduction ratio $R_{0}$ $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ . We investigate the stability of the model at each of the feasible equilibria. To validate our theoretical results, we have conducted numerical simulations. It is observed that if $R_{0} \leq 1$ $\mathscr{R}_{0} \leq 1$ , eventually there will be no disease. However, if $R_{0} > 1$ $\mathscr{R}_{0} > 1$ , a competition between the two COVID-19 strains will occur, and the more infectious variant will survive while the other disappears.