<p>In this paper, the “pseudoinfection phenomenon” and “individual behavioral responses” are taken into account in the SIR epidemic model, and the deterministic and stochastic models are analyzed dynamically. Through the exploration of the deterministic SPAFIR (Susceptible-Pseudoinfected-Alert-Fragile-Infected-Recovered) model, the conditions for the equilibrium points’ existence and stability are determined. With the assistance of the Pontryagin maximum principle, this paper introduces a Hamiltonian function with a penalty term and the optimal control strategy is obtained by comparing the three groups of strategies. The optimal control strategy requires multiple control measures to inhibit the infectious disease spread. Further considering the stochastic SPAFIR model, the existence of the uniqueness of a global positive solution and the existence of a stationary distribution for the stochastic model are proved, and the condition for disease extinction is also verified. Random perturbations of the effective contact rates can slow the pace of spreading the infectious diseases. Results of theoretical analysis and the system’s responsiveness to variations in effective contact rates are verified by numerical simulations, and the outcomes indicate that active prevention education and community encouragement can both inhibit infection spread.</p>

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Dynamic analysis of SPAFIR epidemic model considering pseudoinfection and perturbations

  • Xiaoqian Nie,
  • Yuhan Hu,
  • Weijun Yan

摘要

In this paper, the “pseudoinfection phenomenon” and “individual behavioral responses” are taken into account in the SIR epidemic model, and the deterministic and stochastic models are analyzed dynamically. Through the exploration of the deterministic SPAFIR (Susceptible-Pseudoinfected-Alert-Fragile-Infected-Recovered) model, the conditions for the equilibrium points’ existence and stability are determined. With the assistance of the Pontryagin maximum principle, this paper introduces a Hamiltonian function with a penalty term and the optimal control strategy is obtained by comparing the three groups of strategies. The optimal control strategy requires multiple control measures to inhibit the infectious disease spread. Further considering the stochastic SPAFIR model, the existence of the uniqueness of a global positive solution and the existence of a stationary distribution for the stochastic model are proved, and the condition for disease extinction is also verified. Random perturbations of the effective contact rates can slow the pace of spreading the infectious diseases. Results of theoretical analysis and the system’s responsiveness to variations in effective contact rates are verified by numerical simulations, and the outcomes indicate that active prevention education and community encouragement can both inhibit infection spread.