Mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of Marburg virus disease with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis based on lessons from Ebola virus disease

Marburg virus, like Ebola, causes haemorrhagic disease with high fatality rates. We developed a deterministic SEIRDVT model incorporating vaccination and treatment to study the disease dynamics. Qualitative analysis revealed a backward bifurcation when $R_0=1$ $R_{0}=1$ , meaning $R_0<1$ $R_{0} <1$ is insufficient to eradicate the virus. Sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling showed that applying four control measures—screening, prevention, continuous vaccination, and treatment—significantly reduced transmission. The most cost-effective strategy combines prevention, vaccination, and treatment. These findings provide a framework for designing efficient interventions to combat Marburg virus.