Scholarlink

<p>A global network of Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) provides advice and guidance to the aviation industry on the presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, to support their decision-making on flight safety. Traditionally, forecasts have indicated the expected location of the ash cloud up to 18&#xa0;h ahead, in the form of a simple polygon, presented in both text and graphical forms, referred to as a Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) and Volcanic Ash Graphic (VAG). A new service has now been defined by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) which stipulates that all VAACs must provide quantitative forecasts in the form of 4D gridded datasets of ash concentrations, probabilities of exceeding prescribed thresholds, and new sophisticated polygons. This new capability is being referred to as the Quantitative Volcanic Ash concentration service (QVA). Here, we present the scientific and technical development of the operational modelling system used by the London VAAC to deliver QVA-compliant forecasts. We outline the changes made to the model setup to generate the QVA-compliant forecast ash concentrations. We then describe the approach implemented to generate probabilistic forecasts for the first time and discuss their known limitations and further research and development requirements.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Atmospheric dispersion modelling at the London VAAC: development of quantitative and probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

查看全文
  • Frances M. Beckett,
  • Charlie E. Bates,
  • Benjamin R. Evans,
  • Matthew C. Hort,
  • Andrew R. Jones,
  • Nina I. Kristiansen,
  • Violet Sherratt,
  • Olivia Smedley,
  • Nicola Stebbing,
  • Tomasz M. Trzeciak,
  • Charlie Tucker

摘要

A global network of Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) provides advice and guidance to the aviation industry on the presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, to support their decision-making on flight safety. Traditionally, forecasts have indicated the expected location of the ash cloud up to 18 h ahead, in the form of a simple polygon, presented in both text and graphical forms, referred to as a Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) and Volcanic Ash Graphic (VAG). A new service has now been defined by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) which stipulates that all VAACs must provide quantitative forecasts in the form of 4D gridded datasets of ash concentrations, probabilities of exceeding prescribed thresholds, and new sophisticated polygons. This new capability is being referred to as the Quantitative Volcanic Ash concentration service (QVA). Here, we present the scientific and technical development of the operational modelling system used by the London VAAC to deliver QVA-compliant forecasts. We outline the changes made to the model setup to generate the QVA-compliant forecast ash concentrations. We then describe the approach implemented to generate probabilistic forecasts for the first time and discuss their known limitations and further research and development requirements.