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<p>The volcanic islands of the Aeolian chain (Italy) in southern Tyrrhenian Sea have been sources and receptors of local tsunamis triggered by landslides from the same islands several times during the last century. This study focuses on two of the Aeolian Islands, Vulcano and Lipari, to develop a first approximation evacuation model for cases where there is very little information on potential inundation zones, flooding depths and wave arrival times. To set up zones in need of evacuation, buildings and road characteristics were collected in the field as well as data for the spatial and temporal distribution of population and boats. Tsunami impact zones were determined from historical events which showed likely wave run-ups of one to ten meters and the source of the landslide triggering tsunami was set up on the flank of La Fossa volcano. In the absence of detailed run-up mapping or modelling, contour lines extracted from DEM were used for a first approximation of likely inundation zones. In the case of Vulcano, inundation zones of up to 270,000 m<sup>2</sup> can be expected for even a small 2 m run-up scenario. In the tourist season, 2500 people can be present in the potential flooded area, especially on the beaches. Due to the proximity of these beaches to the north-eastern flank of La Fossa volcano landslide source (≤500 m), threshold times are 1–3 minutes. This means that for horizontal evacuation only 13% and 55% of the exposed area can be evacuated in 1 and 3 minutes respectively. However, if we consider using vertical evacuation involving roof access we increase to 19% and 71%. At Lipari, we have a case of the industrial port, so evacuation has to consider the heavy boat traffic which includes passenger boats, car ferries, tourist boats and cargo ships. Given typical boat speed and threshold time, even the slowest boats can reach a distance of 3–4 km offshore before the tsunami arrives, if reaction time is immediate. Due to the presence of hazardous materials at sea level we need also to consider industrial accident in our plan which can add 200–400 m to the impact area. While we provide a first approximation model for evacuation of flat areas and ports, this analysis highlights some issues related to harbours and inhabited areas located at sea level.</p>

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Tsunami evacuation times and routes to safe zones II: a GIS-based approach applied to Vulcano and Lipari (Aeolian Islands, Italy) to assess escape route challenges for low-lying harbour areas

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月18日

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  • Emmie M. Bonilauri,
  • Andrew J. L. Harris

摘要

The volcanic islands of the Aeolian chain (Italy) in southern Tyrrhenian Sea have been sources and receptors of local tsunamis triggered by landslides from the same islands several times during the last century. This study focuses on two of the Aeolian Islands, Vulcano and Lipari, to develop a first approximation evacuation model for cases where there is very little information on potential inundation zones, flooding depths and wave arrival times. To set up zones in need of evacuation, buildings and road characteristics were collected in the field as well as data for the spatial and temporal distribution of population and boats. Tsunami impact zones were determined from historical events which showed likely wave run-ups of one to ten meters and the source of the landslide triggering tsunami was set up on the flank of La Fossa volcano. In the absence of detailed run-up mapping or modelling, contour lines extracted from DEM were used for a first approximation of likely inundation zones. In the case of Vulcano, inundation zones of up to 270,000 m2 can be expected for even a small 2 m run-up scenario. In the tourist season, 2500 people can be present in the potential flooded area, especially on the beaches. Due to the proximity of these beaches to the north-eastern flank of La Fossa volcano landslide source (≤500 m), threshold times are 1–3 minutes. This means that for horizontal evacuation only 13% and 55% of the exposed area can be evacuated in 1 and 3 minutes respectively. However, if we consider using vertical evacuation involving roof access we increase to 19% and 71%. At Lipari, we have a case of the industrial port, so evacuation has to consider the heavy boat traffic which includes passenger boats, car ferries, tourist boats and cargo ships. Given typical boat speed and threshold time, even the slowest boats can reach a distance of 3–4 km offshore before the tsunami arrives, if reaction time is immediate. Due to the presence of hazardous materials at sea level we need also to consider industrial accident in our plan which can add 200–400 m to the impact area. While we provide a first approximation model for evacuation of flat areas and ports, this analysis highlights some issues related to harbours and inhabited areas located at sea level.