Systemic risk assessment of Lithuanian second-pillar pension funds through connectedness and spillover

Pension funds are an essential part of retirement planning, and their performance and risks play a significant role in ensuring financial stability for retirees. This study aims to analyse the connectedness and spillover effects in the Lithuanian second-pillar pension fund market. The findings of this study provide insight on the interdependence within the second-pillar pension funds market and with other financial markets, and contribute to a better understanding of the risk-return trade-off of pension funds, especially during high-volatility periods. Differently from other studies in this paper market regimes are identified using Hidden Markov Models (HMM). Interdependence (including multivariate and non-linear) and causality between pension funds are analysed in different market regimes. Finally, returns spillover in different regimes is estimated using VAR and VECM models. The results of this paper are expected to be useful for pension fund managers, participants, and pension system supervisors in making decisions about investment strategies and in practices of systemic risk management regulation.