Scholarlink

<p>Mosquitoes, notorious vectors of numerous diseases transmitted through bites, pose a significant public health threat, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change may affect the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. This study investigated how temperature affects the population dynamics of all stages of <i>Anopheles arabiensis</i> mosquitoes, including eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults. We developed and analyzed a mathematical model that incorporates logistic growth and temperature. The well-posedness of the proposed model was proved. We demonstrated that if the non-autonomous basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Conversely, if it is greater than unity, there exists at least one positive periodic solution, as established by applying the comparison theorem and the theory of uniform persistence. Furthermore, the model parameters were fitted to real-world data conducted in the Tropical and Infectious Diseases Research Center (TIDRC) in Sekoru, Jimma University. The model presents the population dynamics of both immature and adult <i>An. Arabiensis</i>, which is similar to the observed experimental data obtained from TIDRC. Therefore, our model suggests that using the results obtained, it can be used to predict the impact of various intervention strategies on <i>An. arabiensis</i> distribution.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Modeling the variability of temperature on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月29日

查看全文
  • Ademe Kebede Gizaw,
  • Temesgen Erena,
  • Eba Alemayehu Simma,
  • Dawit Kechine Menbiko,
  • Dinka Tilahun Etefa,
  • Delenasaw Yewhalaw,
  • Chernet Tuge Deressa

摘要

Mosquitoes, notorious vectors of numerous diseases transmitted through bites, pose a significant public health threat, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change may affect the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. This study investigated how temperature affects the population dynamics of all stages of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes, including eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults. We developed and analyzed a mathematical model that incorporates logistic growth and temperature. The well-posedness of the proposed model was proved. We demonstrated that if the non-autonomous basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Conversely, if it is greater than unity, there exists at least one positive periodic solution, as established by applying the comparison theorem and the theory of uniform persistence. Furthermore, the model parameters were fitted to real-world data conducted in the Tropical and Infectious Diseases Research Center (TIDRC) in Sekoru, Jimma University. The model presents the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. Arabiensis, which is similar to the observed experimental data obtained from TIDRC. Therefore, our model suggests that using the results obtained, it can be used to predict the impact of various intervention strategies on An. arabiensis distribution.