Development of a nomogram for individualized prediction of acute gastrointestinal injury in polytrauma patients

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2024年12月23日

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Cong Zhang,
Zhaohui Tang,
Teding Chang,
Deng Chen,
Shunyao Chen,
Peidong Zhang,
Zhiqiang Lin,
Chunqiu Pan,
Jialiu Luo,
Liming Dong

摘要

Objective

Previous reports have indicated the occurrence of acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) in critically ill individuals. Yet, there is limited information regarding the frequency and potential causes of AGI in individuals with polytrauma. The complicated diagnostic tools often mistaken and mislead the evaluation of AGI. The objective of this research is to create a nomogram that can predict the likelihood of AGI in individuals with polytrauma.

Results

Among 836 polytrauma patients, AGI occurred in 61.2%, significantly higher than the 9.5% in monotrauma patients (P < 0.001).The predictors included Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 16, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 8, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) > 16, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) > 5, presence of shock, lactate level > 3.2, and Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT) > 40 in the individualized prediction nomogram. The nomogram showed good discrimination (C-index = 0.719) and satisfactory calibration.