A machine learning approach to predict foot care self-management in older adults with diabetes

Foot care self-management is underutilized in older adults and diabetic foot ulcers are more common in older adults. It is important to identify predictors of foot care self-management in older adults with diabetes in order to identify and support vulnerable groups. This study aimed to identify predictors of foot care self-management in older adults with diabetes using a machine learning approach.

This cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2023 and February 2024. The data were collected in the endocrinology and metabolic diseases departments of three hospitals in Turkey. Patient identification form and the Foot Care Scale for Older Diabetics (FCS-OD) were used for data collection. Gradient boosting algorithms were used to predict the variable importance. Three machine learning algorithms were used in the study: XGBoost, LightGBM and Random Forest. The algorithms were used to predict patients with a score below or above the mean FCS-OD score.

XGBoost had the best performance (AUC: 0.7469). The common predictors of the models were age (0.0534), gender (0.0038), perceived health status (0.0218), and treatment regimen (0.0027). The XGBoost model, which had the highest AUC value, also identified income level (0.0055) and A1c (0.0020) as predictors of the FCS-OD score.

The study identified age, gender, perceived health status, treatment regimen, income level and A1c as predictors of foot care self-management in older adults with diabetes. Attention should be given to improving foot care self-management among this vulnerable group.