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Background <p><i>Phortica okadai</i> and <i>Phortica variegata</i> are the primary vectors of the zoonotic eyeworm <i>Thelazia callipaeda</i>, which infects humans and various mammals. Climate change and intensified human activities have altered the potential suitable habitats of these vectors, posing a risk of expanded <i>T. callipaeda</i> transmission. This study aims to predict the current potential suitable habitats and future distribution patterns of the two species, providing a scientific basis for vector-borne disease prevention and control.</p> Methods <p>Species occurrence records were compiled from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; <a href="https://www.gbif.org/">https://www.gbif.org/</a>) and systematic literature reviews. The MaxEnt model was utilized to identify key environmental determinants influencing vector distribution. Climate data from WorldClim, future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), elevation data, and Human Footprint Index (HFP) were integrated to predict potential suitable habitats and future distributions (2041–2060) across China and Europe.</p> Results <p>The key environmental drivers for <i>P. okadai</i> are warmest quarter precipitation, HFP, and temperature seasonality, and for <i>P. variegata</i> they are HFP, coldest quarter precipitation, and temperature annual range. Currently, the suitable habitats of <i>P. okadai</i> are concentrated in central, eastern, and northeastern coastal China, with only sporadic low-suitability patches recorded in Europe. <i>P. variegata</i> exhibits a wide distribution across the UK, France, Belgium, and Italy, with nearly the entire Mediterranean coastal belt and its associated offshore islands falling within its suitable range. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of <i>P. okadai</i> is projected to expand significantly in Central/Western Europe (Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and western Russia). In contrast, the suitable habitats of <i>P. variegata</i> will shift significantly: The central–southern–eastern European transitional belt will lose almost all suitable habitat across scenarios, while the Mediterranean littoral and its offshore islands remain climatically suitable.</p> Conclusions <p>The suitable area for <i>P. okadai</i> is projected to increase significantly, whereas that for <i>P. variegata</i> is expected to decline. Temperature and precipitation emerge as primary drivers of these contrasting distribution shifts. These findings underscore the need for enhanced vector surveillance and control strategies for <i>T. callipaeda</i>, particularly regarding the expanding <i>P. okadai</i> populations in Europe.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Contrasting shifts in potential climatic suitability of two Thelazia callipaeda vectors (Phortica okadai and Phortica variegata) across China and Europe under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月24日

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  • Yang Luo,
  • Da Sun,
  • Yajing Xu,
  • Senqi Jia,
  • Zhenfu Chen,
  • Rong Yan,
  • Juan Zhou,
  • Bo Luo,
  • Donghua Long,
  • Rengze Yue,
  • Domenico Otranto,
  • Hui Liu,
  • Lingjun Wang

摘要

Background

Phortica okadai and Phortica variegata are the primary vectors of the zoonotic eyeworm Thelazia callipaeda, which infects humans and various mammals. Climate change and intensified human activities have altered the potential suitable habitats of these vectors, posing a risk of expanded T. callipaeda transmission. This study aims to predict the current potential suitable habitats and future distribution patterns of the two species, providing a scientific basis for vector-borne disease prevention and control.

Methods

Species occurrence records were compiled from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; https://www.gbif.org/) and systematic literature reviews. The MaxEnt model was utilized to identify key environmental determinants influencing vector distribution. Climate data from WorldClim, future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), elevation data, and Human Footprint Index (HFP) were integrated to predict potential suitable habitats and future distributions (2041–2060) across China and Europe.

Results

The key environmental drivers for P. okadai are warmest quarter precipitation, HFP, and temperature seasonality, and for P. variegata they are HFP, coldest quarter precipitation, and temperature annual range. Currently, the suitable habitats of P. okadai are concentrated in central, eastern, and northeastern coastal China, with only sporadic low-suitability patches recorded in Europe. P. variegata exhibits a wide distribution across the UK, France, Belgium, and Italy, with nearly the entire Mediterranean coastal belt and its associated offshore islands falling within its suitable range. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of P. okadai is projected to expand significantly in Central/Western Europe (Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and western Russia). In contrast, the suitable habitats of P. variegata will shift significantly: The central–southern–eastern European transitional belt will lose almost all suitable habitat across scenarios, while the Mediterranean littoral and its offshore islands remain climatically suitable.

Conclusions

The suitable area for P. okadai is projected to increase significantly, whereas that for P. variegata is expected to decline. Temperature and precipitation emerge as primary drivers of these contrasting distribution shifts. These findings underscore the need for enhanced vector surveillance and control strategies for T. callipaeda, particularly regarding the expanding P. okadai populations in Europe.

Graphical Abstract