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Background <p>Otitis media (OM) is a prevalent ear disease that can lead to severe complications, including hearing loss. As significant emerging economies, the BRICS countries warrant focused attention on the evolving trends in OM burden.</p> Objective <p>To systematically analyze trends in OM burden in BRICS from 1990 to 2023 and forecast developments.</p> Methods <p>Using data from the 2023 GBD study, we analyzed the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate (ASDR) of OM in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2023, along with their temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was employed to dissect age, period, and cohort effects on disease burden. Trends between 2024 and 2040 were projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.</p> Results <p>Over the 33 years, the ASIR of OM remained relatively stable across countries, while the ASDR showed a significant decline, with China exhibiting the largest reduction (31.348%). Females consistently showed higher ASIR but lower ASDR than males across all five countries. Within BRICS, the OM burden was predominantly concentrated among children aged 0–9 years. Period effect analysis revealed an overall decreasing trend in DALY rates. Incidence rates remained stable or showed a slight decrease in most countries, with minor increases observed in India and Brazil. Birth cohort analysis revealed a sharp decline in disease burden among recent birth cohorts in China, but a gradual increase among those born since the 1950s in India. Net drift analysis demonstrated a consistent decline in DALY rates across all countries, with China showing the greatest annual decrease (–1.549%/year). In contrast, India (0.007%/year) and Brazil (0.003%/year) exhibited slight increases in incidence rates. Projections for 2024–2040 indicate a continued downward trend in ASIR for Brazil, China, and India, while Russian Federation and South Africa are projected to experience sustained increases. ASDR is projected to rise in all countries except India.</p> Conclusion <p>Over 1990–2023, ASIR of OM in BRICS remained stable, while ASDR declined. Countries should improve the quality of care to effectively reduce the disease burden of OM, based on their own epidemiological trends.</p>

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Trends in otitis media burden among BRICS from 1990 to 2023 and projections to 2040: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the 2023 global burden of disease study

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月27日

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  • Xiaoting Chen,
  • Xin Yang,
  • Deying Gu

摘要

Background

Otitis media (OM) is a prevalent ear disease that can lead to severe complications, including hearing loss. As significant emerging economies, the BRICS countries warrant focused attention on the evolving trends in OM burden.

Objective

To systematically analyze trends in OM burden in BRICS from 1990 to 2023 and forecast developments.

Methods

Using data from the 2023 GBD study, we analyzed the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate (ASDR) of OM in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2023, along with their temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was employed to dissect age, period, and cohort effects on disease burden. Trends between 2024 and 2040 were projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

Over the 33 years, the ASIR of OM remained relatively stable across countries, while the ASDR showed a significant decline, with China exhibiting the largest reduction (31.348%). Females consistently showed higher ASIR but lower ASDR than males across all five countries. Within BRICS, the OM burden was predominantly concentrated among children aged 0–9 years. Period effect analysis revealed an overall decreasing trend in DALY rates. Incidence rates remained stable or showed a slight decrease in most countries, with minor increases observed in India and Brazil. Birth cohort analysis revealed a sharp decline in disease burden among recent birth cohorts in China, but a gradual increase among those born since the 1950s in India. Net drift analysis demonstrated a consistent decline in DALY rates across all countries, with China showing the greatest annual decrease (–1.549%/year). In contrast, India (0.007%/year) and Brazil (0.003%/year) exhibited slight increases in incidence rates. Projections for 2024–2040 indicate a continued downward trend in ASIR for Brazil, China, and India, while Russian Federation and South Africa are projected to experience sustained increases. ASDR is projected to rise in all countries except India.

Conclusion

Over 1990–2023, ASIR of OM in BRICS remained stable, while ASDR declined. Countries should improve the quality of care to effectively reduce the disease burden of OM, based on their own epidemiological trends.