Development and validation of a prediction model for suboptimal ovarian response in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) patients undergoing GnRH-antagonist protocol in IVF/ICSI cycles

PCOS patients with unexpectedly low oocyte yield following conventional ovarian stimulation are referred to as suboptimal responders. However, identifying suboptimal responders presents a significant challenge within reproductive medicine and limited research exists on the occurrence of suboptimal response. This analysis aimed to develop a predictive model of suboptimal response during in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatments in PCOS patients.

This retrospective study involved a cohort of 313 PCOS patients undergoing their first IVF/ICSI cycle from 2019 to 2022. Univariate logistic regression analyses, least absolute shrinkage, selection operator regression analysis, and recursive feature elimination were employed to identify relevant characteristics and construct predictive models. Moreover, a nomogram was constructed based on the best model. Receiver operating characteristic curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model.

The predictors included in the model were age, Anti-Mullerian hormone, antral follicle count, and basal follicle-stimulating hormone. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.7702 (95% confidence interval 0.7157–0.8191). The AUC, along with the DCA curve and calibration curve, demonstrated a satisfactory level of congruence and discrimination ability.

The nomogram effectively predicted the probability of suboptimal response in PCOS patients undergoing gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist protocol during IVF/ICSI treatment.