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<p>The contradiction between rapid urbanization and ecological protection leads to the aggravation of carbon sink function differentiation in coastal areas. In this study, a framework of "historical assessment-future prediction-mechanism analysis" was constructed, and InVEST, PLUS, SEM, and OPGD models were integratedto study the dynamics of carbon storage and its driving mechanisms in three rapidly urbanizing coastal areas (Beidaihe, Caofeidian and Huanghua) in the Bohai Rim region of China. The main results showed that: (1) carbon storage showed the characteristics of periodic change—the expansion of low-carbon land led to the decline of carbon storage (2000–2010), and then Caofeidian achieved 1.50 × 10<sup>6</sup> tons of carbon storage restoration through ecological restoration (2010–2020). (2) Carbon stocks are expected to increase in all four scenarios in 2030, with the largest increase in the Cultivated Land Protection (CP) scenario, with a peak of 3.00 × 10<sup>7</sup> tons. (3)The analysis of the driving mechanism showed that population density was the main driving factor (q = 0.2126–0.2129), and there was a significant nonlinear interaction with socio-economic factors, which jointly shaped the spatial pattern. This analysis reveals the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and core driving factors of carbon storage changes in coastal areas, emphasizes the key role of human activities under urbanization and ecological conflicts, and provides a scientific basis for the implementation of differentiated low-carbon spatial planning in rapidly developing coastal areas.</p>

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Quantifying spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of carbon stock with integrated model in Bohai Bay, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月8日

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  • Feng Yan,
  • Zimo Zhao,
  • Jing Shan,
  • Xinpeng Wang,
  • Yuwen Zhang,
  • Mengyao Wei,
  • Huijin Pan,
  • Xinyu Liang,
  • Hao Xu,
  • Jiao Pang,
  • Yaheng Chen

摘要

The contradiction between rapid urbanization and ecological protection leads to the aggravation of carbon sink function differentiation in coastal areas. In this study, a framework of "historical assessment-future prediction-mechanism analysis" was constructed, and InVEST, PLUS, SEM, and OPGD models were integratedto study the dynamics of carbon storage and its driving mechanisms in three rapidly urbanizing coastal areas (Beidaihe, Caofeidian and Huanghua) in the Bohai Rim region of China. The main results showed that: (1) carbon storage showed the characteristics of periodic change—the expansion of low-carbon land led to the decline of carbon storage (2000–2010), and then Caofeidian achieved 1.50 × 106 tons of carbon storage restoration through ecological restoration (2010–2020). (2) Carbon stocks are expected to increase in all four scenarios in 2030, with the largest increase in the Cultivated Land Protection (CP) scenario, with a peak of 3.00 × 107 tons. (3)The analysis of the driving mechanism showed that population density was the main driving factor (q = 0.2126–0.2129), and there was a significant nonlinear interaction with socio-economic factors, which jointly shaped the spatial pattern. This analysis reveals the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and core driving factors of carbon storage changes in coastal areas, emphasizes the key role of human activities under urbanization and ecological conflicts, and provides a scientific basis for the implementation of differentiated low-carbon spatial planning in rapidly developing coastal areas.