Triglyceride-glucose index predicts all-cause mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality, in rural Northeast Chinese patients with metabolic syndrome: a community-based retrospective cohort study

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) includes a group of metabolic irregularities, including insulin resistance (IR), atherogenic dyslipidemia, central obesity, and hypertension. Consistent evidence supports IR and ongoing low-grade inflammation as the main contributors to MetS pathogenesis. However, the association between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and mortality in people with MetS remains uncertain. The objective of this study was to examine the correlation between the baseline TyG index and all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in rural Northeast Chinese individuals with MetS.

For the Northeast China Rural Cardiovascular Health Study, 3918 participants (mean age, 55 ± 10; 62.4% women) with MetS at baseline were enrolled in 2012–2013 and followed up from 2015 to 2017. The TyG index was calculated using the equation TyG index = ln [fasting TG (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2] and subdivided into tertiles [Q1(< 8.92); Q2 (8.92–9.36); Q3 (≥ 9.36)]. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were developed to examine the correlations between mortality and the baseline TyG index.

During a median of 4.66 years of follow-up, 196 (5.0%) all-cause deaths and 108 (2.8%) CV disease-related deaths occurred. The incidence of all-cause mortality was significantly different among TyG index tertiles of the overall population (P = 0.045). Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality in rural Chinese patients with a higher TyG index (log-rank P < 0.05). After adjusting for possible confounders, Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that the TyG index could effectively predict all-cause mortality (HR for the third vs. first tertile of TyG was 1.441 [95% confidence interval, 1.009–2.059]), but not CV mortality, in rural Chinese patients with MetS.

The TyG index is an effective predictor of all-cause mortality in rural Chinese patients with MetS. This indicates that the TyG index may be useful for identifying rural Chinese individuals with MetS at a high risk of death.