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Introduction <p>Tobacco smoking is associated with significantly increased risks of lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, COPD, and other serious illnesses. Globally, it causes more than 7&#xa0;million deaths annually, about 75% of which occur in men. This study compared the life expectancy of smokers and non-smokers in India (2019) using life table analysis.</p> Methods <p>Two modelling scenarios were considered: one assuming deaths are uniformly distributed across each age interval and another assuming an increasing (exponential) distribution of deaths within intervals. Smoking prevalence data came from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS-2), and mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Life expectancy was calculated from age 30 onward, and a sensitivity analysis was performed using GBD’s upper- and lower-bound mortality estimates.</p> Results <p>Smokers had a shorter life expectancy than non-smokers, and this gap widened with age. On average, smokers lived about 2.7 years less than non-smokers for males and 4.2 years less for females. Using the higher mortality (upper-bound) scenario for smokers increased the gap to ~ 6.4 years (males) and ~ 8.8 years (females). Notably, the choice of death distribution model (uniform vs. increasing) had a negligible effect on the results.</p> Conclusion <p>The substantial life expectancy gap between smokers and non-smokers—especially under worst-case mortality scenarios—underscores the need to strengthen tobacco control and cessation initiatives in India.</p>

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A model-based comparison of life expectancy by smoking status

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月19日

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  • Paramita Bhattacharya,
  • Lucky Singh,
  • Prashant Kumar Singh,
  • Sajda Khatoon,
  • Amit Yadav,
  • Nirmalya Mukherjee,
  • Pranay Lal

摘要

Introduction

Tobacco smoking is associated with significantly increased risks of lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, COPD, and other serious illnesses. Globally, it causes more than 7 million deaths annually, about 75% of which occur in men. This study compared the life expectancy of smokers and non-smokers in India (2019) using life table analysis.

Methods

Two modelling scenarios were considered: one assuming deaths are uniformly distributed across each age interval and another assuming an increasing (exponential) distribution of deaths within intervals. Smoking prevalence data came from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS-2), and mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Life expectancy was calculated from age 30 onward, and a sensitivity analysis was performed using GBD’s upper- and lower-bound mortality estimates.

Results

Smokers had a shorter life expectancy than non-smokers, and this gap widened with age. On average, smokers lived about 2.7 years less than non-smokers for males and 4.2 years less for females. Using the higher mortality (upper-bound) scenario for smokers increased the gap to ~ 6.4 years (males) and ~ 8.8 years (females). Notably, the choice of death distribution model (uniform vs. increasing) had a negligible effect on the results.

Conclusion

The substantial life expectancy gap between smokers and non-smokers—especially under worst-case mortality scenarios—underscores the need to strengthen tobacco control and cessation initiatives in India.