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Background <p>Ethiopia continues to experience high rates of acute child malnutrition despite notable economic growth and poverty reduction. Stunting and wasting remain widespread, particularly in rural areas that depend on rainfall. In the semi-arid Borana Zone of southern Ethiopia, where livelihoods are livestock based, recurrent droughts reduce livestock productivity and household food availability, especially milk. The direct effects of rainfall shortages on child nutrition in pastoralist settings remain insufficiently explored. This study examines this relationship and evaluates how policy interventions can mitigate the impacts of drought on child acute malnutrition.</p> Methods <p>Household-level longitudinal data were collected in Ethiopia’s Borana Zone (2012–2015) as part of the Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) Project by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) data from children in surveyed households served as indicators of malnutrition and were linked to remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) measures of local photosynthetic activity. Drought conditions were quantified using district-level standardized NDVI values for the short dry season. Linear and probit models incorporated child, household, and policy variables, with fixed and random effects controlling for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Model selection was guided by Hausman tests.</p> Results <p>Findings reveal a generally positive correlation between greenness of an area as measured by z-scored NDVI and child nutritional status as measured by z-scored MUAC. The results also indicate that policy interventions aimed at mitigating the link between relatively poor pasture conditions and acute child malnutrition have largely failed to achieve their intended goals. Furthermore, the results suggest that a one standard deviation decrease in the NDVI z-score is associated with a 6.7% [95% CI: -11.8% to -1.6%] increase in the likelihood of acute malnutrition among children age five and under.</p> Conclusions <p>Vegetation conditions are significantly associated with child nutrition. NDVI can serve as an early warning and planning tool for targeting interventions in drought-prone regions.</p>

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Effects of drought on acute child malnutrition in Borana Zone, South Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月15日

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  • Abdela Alite Hilo,
  • John McPeak

摘要

Background

Ethiopia continues to experience high rates of acute child malnutrition despite notable economic growth and poverty reduction. Stunting and wasting remain widespread, particularly in rural areas that depend on rainfall. In the semi-arid Borana Zone of southern Ethiopia, where livelihoods are livestock based, recurrent droughts reduce livestock productivity and household food availability, especially milk. The direct effects of rainfall shortages on child nutrition in pastoralist settings remain insufficiently explored. This study examines this relationship and evaluates how policy interventions can mitigate the impacts of drought on child acute malnutrition.

Methods

Household-level longitudinal data were collected in Ethiopia’s Borana Zone (2012–2015) as part of the Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) Project by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) data from children in surveyed households served as indicators of malnutrition and were linked to remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) measures of local photosynthetic activity. Drought conditions were quantified using district-level standardized NDVI values for the short dry season. Linear and probit models incorporated child, household, and policy variables, with fixed and random effects controlling for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Model selection was guided by Hausman tests.

Results

Findings reveal a generally positive correlation between greenness of an area as measured by z-scored NDVI and child nutritional status as measured by z-scored MUAC. The results also indicate that policy interventions aimed at mitigating the link between relatively poor pasture conditions and acute child malnutrition have largely failed to achieve their intended goals. Furthermore, the results suggest that a one standard deviation decrease in the NDVI z-score is associated with a 6.7% [95% CI: -11.8% to -1.6%] increase in the likelihood of acute malnutrition among children age five and under.

Conclusions

Vegetation conditions are significantly associated with child nutrition. NDVI can serve as an early warning and planning tool for targeting interventions in drought-prone regions.