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<p>Lymphatic filariasis is a disease linked to poverty and caused by a parasitic worm. It is prevalent in tropical regions, affecting approximately 1.4 billion people worldwide. This study develops a mathematical model that employs four different control measures: public education campaigns, preventive methods using insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying, screening of asymptomatically infected individuals, and efforts to reduce the susceptible human population to create a protected community. The effectiveness and costs of these methods are assessed using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, efficiency analysis, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, all of which are framed within a set of nonlinear equations. The analysis also evaluates the stability of the solutions and the control reproduction number to determine the effectiveness of the strategies. A forward bifurcation is proved to exist in the absence of the disease, indicating that the disease will be eliminated when <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="12982_2025_1058_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="51" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_c &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, which implies that sustained implementation of control strategies is an essential component of an effective long-term plan for controlling the disease. Furthermore, each strategy is analysed based on its budget and the health benefits it provides. Among the strategy combinations analysed, Strategy C, screening asymptomatic infected individuals, emerges as the most cost-effective option, offering reasonable disease control at a significantly lower cost compared to the other strategies. The strategy is also applicable to all single, double, triple, and quadruple control strategies. These findings highlight the importance of screening the asymptomatic infected individuals, particularly in communities with limited resources, where efficiency is essential for eradicating the disease.</p>

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Optimizing the control of lymphatic filariasis: a mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月17日

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  • Agatha Abokwara,
  • Chinwendu E. Madubueze

摘要

Lymphatic filariasis is a disease linked to poverty and caused by a parasitic worm. It is prevalent in tropical regions, affecting approximately 1.4 billion people worldwide. This study develops a mathematical model that employs four different control measures: public education campaigns, preventive methods using insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying, screening of asymptomatically infected individuals, and efforts to reduce the susceptible human population to create a protected community. The effectiveness and costs of these methods are assessed using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, efficiency analysis, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, all of which are framed within a set of nonlinear equations. The analysis also evaluates the stability of the solutions and the control reproduction number to determine the effectiveness of the strategies. A forward bifurcation is proved to exist in the absence of the disease, indicating that the disease will be eliminated when \(R_c < 1\) , which implies that sustained implementation of control strategies is an essential component of an effective long-term plan for controlling the disease. Furthermore, each strategy is analysed based on its budget and the health benefits it provides. Among the strategy combinations analysed, Strategy C, screening asymptomatic infected individuals, emerges as the most cost-effective option, offering reasonable disease control at a significantly lower cost compared to the other strategies. The strategy is also applicable to all single, double, triple, and quadruple control strategies. These findings highlight the importance of screening the asymptomatic infected individuals, particularly in communities with limited resources, where efficiency is essential for eradicating the disease.