Predictive nomogram of the clinical outcomes of colorectal cancer based on methylated SEPT9 and intratumoral IL-10⁺ Tregs infiltration

Gene methylation and the immune-related tumor microenvironment (TME) are highly correlated in tumor progression and therapeutic efficacy. Although both of them can be used to predict the clinical outcomes of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, their predictive value is still unsatisfactory. Whether a combination risk model comprising these two prediction parameters performs better predictive effectiveness than independent factor is still unclear. Methylated Septin9 (mSEPT9) is an early diagnosis biomarker of CRC, in this study, we aimed to investigate mSEPT9-related biomarkers of immunosuppressive TME and identify the value of the combination risk model in predicting the clinical outcomes of CRC.

Immunofluorescence staining was performed to clarify the correlation between intratumoral IL-10⁺ Treg infiltration and mSEPT9 in peripheral blood. Survival time, response to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based chemotherapy and PD-1 blockade, and the probability of recurrence or metastasis were analyzed in study (197 CRC samples) and validation (195 CRC samples) sets to evaluate the efficacy of combination risk model. Potential mechanisms were explored by mRNA sequencing.

Hypermethylated SEPT9 in the peripheral blood of patients with CRC (stage I-III, and stage IV with resectable M1) before radical resection was positively correlated with high intratumoral IL-10⁺ Treg infiltration. The high-risk model revealed poor overall survival and progression-free survival, inferior therapeutic response to 5-FU-based chemotherapy and PD-1 blockade, and high probability of recurrence or metastasis. The underlying mechanisms may be associated with the increase in mSEPT9 and mediation of IL-10 via methionine metabolic reprogramming-induced infiltration of IL-10⁺ Tregs in the TME, which promotes tumor progression and resistance to 5-FU-based chemotherapy and PD-1 blockade.

The combination risk model of peripheral mSETP9 and intratumoral IL-10⁺ Treg infiltration in CRC can effectively predict prognosis, responsiveness to 5-FU-based chemotherapy and PD-1 blockade, and the probability of recurrence or metastasis. Therefore, this model can be used for precision treatment of CRC.