<p>A recent trend among China’s migrant population has been a preponderance of familial transitions; to promote the new urbanization process, this necessitates prompt and effective responses at the level of local policies and public services. By constructing a logit model and employing propensity score matching (PSM) analysis using data from the Health Commission’s China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) and the statistical yearbooks of the relevant localities, the determinants of the family-based mobile population’s propensity to settle down are investigated. (i) both exclusionary welfare and public welfare have a significant positive effect on the settlement intention of the family floating population as a whole; however, public welfare has a more robust explanatory capacity.The PSM results indicate that migrants in high public welfare cities exhibit a settlement intention approximately 11.8% points higher than those in low public welfare cities with similar characteristics. (ii) Following regional grouping, the influence of core variables on the migrant population’s intention to settle alters substantially, indicating that spatial heterogeneity analyses are required due to the obvious differences between regions. (iii) The settlement policy implemented by economically developed regions primarily hinders many family migrants. Specifically, these regions manipulate the settlement decision-making process of family migrants by establishing discriminatory institutional arrangements, thereby influencing population size and structure.</p>