The nonlinear relationship between triglyceride glucose-waist circumference and stroke risk in middle-aged and elderly people: a nationwide prospective cohort study of the CHARLS

Numerous research have focused on the relationship of metabolic markers and stroke risk, yet limited research has focused on the triglyceride glucose-waist circumference (TyG-WC) index. This study explored the possible association of TyG-WC and stroke among moderately aged and old Chinese adults over 45 years of age.

This observational cohort analysis involved 9054 participants from the Chinese Longitudinal Study of Health and Retirement and employed a standardized questionnaire administered via in-person interviews. Cox proportional hazard model, smoothed curve fitting, and threshold effect analysis were conducted for examining the potential nonlinear relationships among TyG-WC and stroke risk.

Within an average follow-up period of six years, 463 new strokes occurred, representing 5.11% of the total number of patients. After adjusting for possible confounding factors, a nonlinear association between TyG-WC and stroke risk was identified, with a significant dose–response relationship (P = 0.023 for the log-likelihood ratio test). A turning point was identified at the TyG-WC level of 554.48, beyond that the likelihood of stroke increased markedly (HR = 1.323, 95% CI = 1.098–1.594, P = 0.003).

This study revealed a specific curvilinear association with the TyG-WC score and stroke risk, identifying a key threshold value. This study focused on Chinese middle-aged and senior adults over the age of 45, emphasizing that increased stroke risk is linked to higher TyG-WC levels.