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Background <p>Taiwan is one of the fastest-warming regions globally. As climate change intensifies, understanding how vulnerability influences health outcomes critical. This study aimed to identify regional vulnerability factors for temperature-related respiratory mortality and effective region-specific adaptation policies.</p> Methods <p>A two-stage time-series study was conducted using daily respiratory mortality counts aggregated by county and day. This study employed a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-attributable mortality burden from respiratory diseases across all counties and cities in Taiwan. A two-stage meta-analysis was conducted to estimate temperature–mortality associations and quantify cold- and heat-related mortality burdens by county. Meta-regression was used to identify regional vulnerability factors modifying temperature-related mortality risk, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied to characterize the spatial heterogeneity of these effects across counties.</p> Results <p>Cold exposure was linked to a higher burden of respiratory disease mortality (attributable fraction [AF]: 2.03%, 95% CI: 1.10–2.95) than heat exposure (AF: 1.02%, 95% CI: 0.65–1.40). For cold-related AFs, higher proportions of Indigenous populations (3.27, 0.79–5.75), low-income populations (2.11, 0.67–3.55), greater population density (2.21, 0.46–3.96), and children (0.98, 0.35–1.61) were significantly associated with increased risk, suggesting vulnerability factors. GWR further showed that hospital bed availability had statistically significant protective effects against cold-related AF in 10 of 19 counties (β = − 5.24 to − 6.78), most pronounced in remote mountainous counties (Hualien, Taitung, Kaohsiung).</p> Conclusion <p>Higher proportions of Indigenous populations, low-income population, and children amplify cold-related respiratory mortality. Hospital bed availability confers the strongest protection against cold-related mortality in remote, mountainous counties. Climate adaptation policies for cold-related respiratory health should therefore be tailored to local vulnerability profiles, prioritizing healthcare expansion in geographically remote counties rather than applying uniform investment across all regions.</p>

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Climate vulnerability factors for temperature-related respiratory mortality: a nationwide two-stage time-series study from 2008 to 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月23日

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  • Hsiao-Yu Yang,
  • Shin-Chieh Chen,
  • Hsi-Yun Chang,
  • Yao-Yuan Wang

摘要

Background

Taiwan is one of the fastest-warming regions globally. As climate change intensifies, understanding how vulnerability influences health outcomes critical. This study aimed to identify regional vulnerability factors for temperature-related respiratory mortality and effective region-specific adaptation policies.

Methods

A two-stage time-series study was conducted using daily respiratory mortality counts aggregated by county and day. This study employed a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-attributable mortality burden from respiratory diseases across all counties and cities in Taiwan. A two-stage meta-analysis was conducted to estimate temperature–mortality associations and quantify cold- and heat-related mortality burdens by county. Meta-regression was used to identify regional vulnerability factors modifying temperature-related mortality risk, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied to characterize the spatial heterogeneity of these effects across counties.

Results

Cold exposure was linked to a higher burden of respiratory disease mortality (attributable fraction [AF]: 2.03%, 95% CI: 1.10–2.95) than heat exposure (AF: 1.02%, 95% CI: 0.65–1.40). For cold-related AFs, higher proportions of Indigenous populations (3.27, 0.79–5.75), low-income populations (2.11, 0.67–3.55), greater population density (2.21, 0.46–3.96), and children (0.98, 0.35–1.61) were significantly associated with increased risk, suggesting vulnerability factors. GWR further showed that hospital bed availability had statistically significant protective effects against cold-related AF in 10 of 19 counties (β = − 5.24 to − 6.78), most pronounced in remote mountainous counties (Hualien, Taitung, Kaohsiung).

Conclusion

Higher proportions of Indigenous populations, low-income population, and children amplify cold-related respiratory mortality. Hospital bed availability confers the strongest protection against cold-related mortality in remote, mountainous counties. Climate adaptation policies for cold-related respiratory health should therefore be tailored to local vulnerability profiles, prioritizing healthcare expansion in geographically remote counties rather than applying uniform investment across all regions.