Background <p>Existing cardiovascular risk prediction models still have room for improvement in patients with type 2 diabetes who represent a high-risk population. This study evaluated whether adding metabolomic biomarkers could enhance the 10-year prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in these patients.</p> Methods <p>Data from 10,257 to 1,039 patients with type 2 diabetes from the UK Biobank (UKB) and the German ESTHER cohort, respectively, were used for model derivation, internal and external validation. A total of 249 metabolites were measured with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Sex-specific LASSO regression with bootstrapping identified significant metabolites. The enhanced model’s predictive performance was evaluated using Harrell’s C-index.</p> Results <p>Seven metabolomic biomarkers were selected by LASSO regression for enhanced MACE risk prediction (three for both sexes, three male- and one female-specific metabolite(s)). Especially albumin and the omega-3-fatty-acids-to-total-fatty-acids-percentage among males and lactate among females improved the C-index. In internal validation with 30% of the UKB, adding the selected metabolites to the SCORE2-Diabetes model increased the C-index statistically significantly (<i>P</i> = 0.037) from 0.660 to 0.678 in the total sample. In external validation with ESTHER, the C-index increase was higher (+ 0.043) and remained statistically significant (<i>P</i> = 0.011).</p> Conclusions <p>Incorporating seven metabolomic biomarkers in the SCORE2-Diabetes model enhanced its ability to predict MACE in patients with type 2 diabetes. Given the latest cost reduction and standardization efforts, NMR metabolomics has the potential for translation into the clinical routine.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Improving 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes with metabolomics

  • Ruijie Xie,
  • Teresa Seum,
  • Sha Sha,
  • Kira Trares,
  • Bernd Holleczek,
  • Hermann Brenner,
  • Ben Schöttker

摘要

Background

Existing cardiovascular risk prediction models still have room for improvement in patients with type 2 diabetes who represent a high-risk population. This study evaluated whether adding metabolomic biomarkers could enhance the 10-year prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in these patients.

Methods

Data from 10,257 to 1,039 patients with type 2 diabetes from the UK Biobank (UKB) and the German ESTHER cohort, respectively, were used for model derivation, internal and external validation. A total of 249 metabolites were measured with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Sex-specific LASSO regression with bootstrapping identified significant metabolites. The enhanced model’s predictive performance was evaluated using Harrell’s C-index.

Results

Seven metabolomic biomarkers were selected by LASSO regression for enhanced MACE risk prediction (three for both sexes, three male- and one female-specific metabolite(s)). Especially albumin and the omega-3-fatty-acids-to-total-fatty-acids-percentage among males and lactate among females improved the C-index. In internal validation with 30% of the UKB, adding the selected metabolites to the SCORE2-Diabetes model increased the C-index statistically significantly (P = 0.037) from 0.660 to 0.678 in the total sample. In external validation with ESTHER, the C-index increase was higher (+ 0.043) and remained statistically significant (P = 0.011).

Conclusions

Incorporating seven metabolomic biomarkers in the SCORE2-Diabetes model enhanced its ability to predict MACE in patients with type 2 diabetes. Given the latest cost reduction and standardization efforts, NMR metabolomics has the potential for translation into the clinical routine.

Graphical abstract