Development and validation of machine-learning models of diet management for hyperphenylalaninemia: a multicenter retrospective study

Assessing dietary phenylalanine (Phe) tolerance is crucial for managing hyperphenylalaninemia (HPA) in children. However, traditionally, adjusting the diet requires significant time from clinicians and parents. This study aims to investigate the development of a machine-learning model that predicts a range of dietary Phe intake tolerance for children with HPA over 10 years following diagnosis.

In this multicenter retrospective observational study, we collected the genotypes of phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH), metabolic profiles at screening and diagnosis, and blood Phe concentrations corresponding to dietary Phe intake from over 10 years of follow-up data for 204 children with HPA. To incorporate genetic information, allelic phenotype value (APV) was input for 2965 missense variants in the PAH gene using a predicted APV (pAPV) model. This model was trained on known pheno-genotype relationships from the BioPKU database, utilizing 31 features. Subsequently, a multiclass classification model was constructed and trained on a dataset featuring metabolic data, genetic data, and follow-up data from 3177 events. The final model was fine-tuned using tenfold validation and validated against three independent datasets.

The pAPV model achieved a good predictive performance with root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.53 and 2.38 on the training and test datasets, respectively. The variants that cause amino acid changes in the region of 200–300 of PAH tend to exhibit lower pAPV. The final model achieved a sensitivity range of 0.77 to 0.91 and a specificity range of 0.8 to 1 across all validation datasets. Additional assessment metrics including positive predictive value (0.68–1), negative predictive values (0.8–0.98), F1 score (0.71–0.92), and balanced accuracy (0.8–0.92) demonstrated the robust performance of our model.

Our model integrates metabolic and genetic information to accurately predict age-specific Phe tolerance, aiding in the precision management of patients with HPA. This study provides a potential framework that could be applied to other inborn errors of metabolism.