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Background <p>Turkey is undergoing a significant demographic transition characterized by an increasing elderly population and a declining youth demographic. This study aimed to analyze the trends in patient demographics, surgical indications, and procedure types over a 16-year period (2009–2024) in a general surgery department of a tertiary referral center in Turkey, highlighting the influence of the aging population on surgical practice.</p> Materials and methods <p>This retrospective cohort study was conducted using electronic and physical surgical records from January 2009 to December 2024 at the General Surgery Department of University of Health Sciences, Ümraniye Training and Research Hospital. The unit of analysis was surgical procedures (<i>n</i> = 39,683). Data extracted included patient age, gender, surgical indications, and the types of procedures performed. Temporal trends were analyzed using linear regression for continuous variables and chi-square tests for trends for categorical variables. Time-series analysis (ARIMA) was employed to model trends in specific surgical procedures. The male/female ratio for each procedure was also calculated annually.</p> Results <p>Mean age at surgery increased significantly from 42.1 years in 2009 to 50.5 years in 2024 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). The proportion of procedures performed in adults aged ≥ 65 years rose from 18.5% to 36.2% (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), while the proportion in adults aged 18–40 years decreased from 32.1% to 16.9% (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). Laparoscopic cholecystectomy and grafted hernia repairs (inguinal and incisional) showed significant increasing trends. Conversely, open appendectomy demonstrated a marked decline, with laparoscopic appendectomy showing an increasing mean age at surgery. Breast cancer surgeries and thyroidectomies also exhibited increasing trends in volume.</p> Conclusion <p>The aging population in Turkey has led to substantial changes in the patient demographics and surgical workload in this tertiary general surgery center. The findings emphasize the increasing demand for procedures related to age-related conditions and the need for adapting surgical resources, training, and healthcare policies to effectively address these evolving needs for efficient and equitable healthcare delivery.</p>

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Evolving Demographics and Their Impact on General Surgery Operations: A 16-year Analysis from a Tertiary Center in Turkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月25日

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  • Olgun Erdem,
  • Aylin Acar,
  • Tolga Canbak,
  • Fatih Başak,
  • Kemal Tekeşin,
  • Fatih Öztoprak,
  • İlyas Kudaş,
  • Yahya Kemal Çalışkan

摘要

Background

Turkey is undergoing a significant demographic transition characterized by an increasing elderly population and a declining youth demographic. This study aimed to analyze the trends in patient demographics, surgical indications, and procedure types over a 16-year period (2009–2024) in a general surgery department of a tertiary referral center in Turkey, highlighting the influence of the aging population on surgical practice.

Materials and methods

This retrospective cohort study was conducted using electronic and physical surgical records from January 2009 to December 2024 at the General Surgery Department of University of Health Sciences, Ümraniye Training and Research Hospital. The unit of analysis was surgical procedures (n = 39,683). Data extracted included patient age, gender, surgical indications, and the types of procedures performed. Temporal trends were analyzed using linear regression for continuous variables and chi-square tests for trends for categorical variables. Time-series analysis (ARIMA) was employed to model trends in specific surgical procedures. The male/female ratio for each procedure was also calculated annually.

Results

Mean age at surgery increased significantly from 42.1 years in 2009 to 50.5 years in 2024 (p < 0.001). The proportion of procedures performed in adults aged ≥ 65 years rose from 18.5% to 36.2% (p < 0.001), while the proportion in adults aged 18–40 years decreased from 32.1% to 16.9% (p < 0.001). Laparoscopic cholecystectomy and grafted hernia repairs (inguinal and incisional) showed significant increasing trends. Conversely, open appendectomy demonstrated a marked decline, with laparoscopic appendectomy showing an increasing mean age at surgery. Breast cancer surgeries and thyroidectomies also exhibited increasing trends in volume.

Conclusion

The aging population in Turkey has led to substantial changes in the patient demographics and surgical workload in this tertiary general surgery center. The findings emphasize the increasing demand for procedures related to age-related conditions and the need for adapting surgical resources, training, and healthcare policies to effectively address these evolving needs for efficient and equitable healthcare delivery.