Nomogram construction and validation of axial deviation in patients with tibial defects treated with the Ilizarov bone transport technique

The Ilizarov bone transport technique is widely recognised as an effective method for treating large segment bone defects in clinical practice. However, axial deviation is a common complication in the treatment of tibial large segment bone defects, which can have a serious impact on the clinical efficacy of bone transport. Our study aims to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting axial deviation of tibial bone transport.

This study retrospectively collected data from 363 patients who underwent the tibial Ilizarov technique for bone transport. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent risk factors for axial deviation, which were later used to construct a nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated using the decision curve analysis (DCA), the calibration curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Of the 363 patients who underwent Ilizarov tibial bone transport, 31.7% (115/363) experienced axial deviation. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender, height, defect site, and external fixation index were important risk factors for axial deviation. The AUC value of the nomogram model was 0.705. The calibration curve and the decision curve analysis showed a good consistency between the actual axial deviation and the predicted probability.

The model assigns a quantitative risk score to each variable, which can be used to predict the risk of axial deviation during tibial bone transport.