Similarity analyses of causative viruses for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma exacerbations

The representativeness of cohort studies compared to nationwide data is a major concern. This study evaluated the similarity and seasonality of causative respiratory viruses for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma exacerbations between retrospective multicenter cohort study and nationwide data.

We compared data from the retrospective multicenter cohort study with Korean Influenza and Respiratory Surveillance System data between 2015 and 2018. Correlation, dynamic time warping (DTW), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) analyses were performed.

Spearman correlation coefficients [ρ] indicated very strong (respiratory syncytial virus [RSV] [ρ = 0.8458] and influenza virus [IFV] [ρ = 0.8272]), strong (human metapneumovirus [HMPV] [ρ = 0.7177] and parainfluenza virus [PIV] [ρ = 0.6742]), and moderate (rhinovirus [RV] [ρ = 0.5850] and human coronavirus [HCoV] [ρ = 0.5158]) correlations. DTW analyses showed moderate (PIV) and high (IFV, RSV, and HMPV) synchronicity between the two datasets, while RV and HCoV showed low synchronicity. SARIMA analyses revealed 12-month seasonality for IFV, RSV, PIV, and HMPV. The peak season was winter for RSV and IFV, spring to summer for PIV, and spring for HMPV.

This was the first study to report the synchronicity between a retrospective multicenter cohort study of viruses that can cause COPD or asthma exacerbations and nationwide surveillance system data.