The potential impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on daily sugar and energy intake among the Dutch population with different socioeconomic positions: a modelling study
摘要
Fiscal policies to curb sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption are often recommended to address the associated health risks and societal burden. The differential impact of these policies across socioeconomic position (SEP) is important for promoting equity in public health outcomes. This study aimed to estimate the impact of a flat-rate tax (€26.13 per 100 L) and tiered tax based on the sugar content ceiling limits of the Dutch National Approach to Product Improvement (NAPV) on sugar and energy intake from SSBs by total population, SEP, age, and sex in the Netherlands.
MethodsThe impact of price changes on daily SSB consumption was modelled by applying a price elasticity of -1.59 on nationally-representative food consumption data from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 2019–2021. We assumed a pass-through rate of 82% to consumers. Linear regression models were applied to estimate the mean changes in sugar and energy intake from SSBs by SEP, age, and sex. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to test differences in mean changes. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on price elasticity and pass-through rate.
ResultsThe tiered scenario showed a greater reduction in mean SSB consumption than the flat-rate tax scenario (-74.3 ml/day vs. -48.3 ml/day). The flat-rate tax would decrease daily sugar intake by -3.1 gram/day (95%CI: -3.3, -2.9) and energy intake by -72.8 kJ/day (95%CI: -77.5, -68.0). The tiered tax would result in higher mean reductions of sugar (-6.4 g/day, 95% CI: -6.9, -6.0) and energy intake (-136.4 kJ/day, 95%CI: 145.6, -127.2). In both tax structures, greater reductions in sugar and energy intake were observed for low SEP (-8.0 g/day and 165.2 kJ/day in the tiered tax; -3.8 g/day and 85.2 kJ/day in the flat-rate tax), compared to middle (-6.5 g/day and 138.1 kJ/day; -3.1 g/day and 74.5 kJ/day) and high SEP (-5.6 g/day and 119.8 kJ/day; -2.6 g/day and 64.7 kJ/day). Children/adolescents experienced greater reductions than adults and senior citizens, and males had greater reductions than females.
ConclusionA SSB tax could reduce daily sugar and energy intake in the Netherlands. The potential effect is greater with a tiered tax design, among lower SEP groups, children/adolescents, and males.