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Background <p>Drowning is the third leading cause of unintentional injury death globally. Weather and ocean conditions are recognised as important determinants of drowning and other aquatic injuries (both fatal and non-fatal). Climate change represents an emerging concern increasing aquatic injury risk. This scoping review aimed to identify environmental determinants of unintentional aquatic injury, contextualising the findings within the recognised impacts of climate change.</p> Methods <p>Systematic searches across eight databases identified peer-reviewed studies that investigated associations between aquatic injury and weather and ocean conditions. Two reviewers independently screened studies by title/abstract, then full text. Data were extracted using standardised forms, with numerical summary and thematic analysis employed to synthesise findings.</p> Results <p>Of 104 included studies, only five directly examined climate change impacts on aquatic injury. Eight environmental determinants were identified as drivers of aquatic injury risk. Strong evidence demonstrated positive exponential relationships between ambient air temperature &gt; 22&#xa0;°C and aquatic injury risk, with heatwaves representing periods of extreme risk. Humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, and rainfall act as exposure moderators, while wave heights of 0.5–1.5&#xa0;m, wave periods &gt; 6&#xa0;s, and low water levels are associated with increased injury risk.</p> Discussion <p>Weather and ocean conditions are significant drivers of aquatic injury, constituting a growing climate-sensitive health risk. Climate change will disrupt weather patterns and intensify extreme events, simultaneously increasing human exposure to waterways and water-related hazard intensity. Despite projected increases in climate-driven aquatic injury, there is a paucity of research examining this critical intersection, underscoring an urgent need for targeted investigation and evidence-based adaptation strategies.</p>

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A climate sensitive-health risk: A scoping review of environmental determinants of aquatic injury and mortality

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Sean D. Kelly,
  • Robert W. Brander,
  • Jasmin C. Lawes,
  • Amy E. Peden

摘要

Background

Drowning is the third leading cause of unintentional injury death globally. Weather and ocean conditions are recognised as important determinants of drowning and other aquatic injuries (both fatal and non-fatal). Climate change represents an emerging concern increasing aquatic injury risk. This scoping review aimed to identify environmental determinants of unintentional aquatic injury, contextualising the findings within the recognised impacts of climate change.

Methods

Systematic searches across eight databases identified peer-reviewed studies that investigated associations between aquatic injury and weather and ocean conditions. Two reviewers independently screened studies by title/abstract, then full text. Data were extracted using standardised forms, with numerical summary and thematic analysis employed to synthesise findings.

Results

Of 104 included studies, only five directly examined climate change impacts on aquatic injury. Eight environmental determinants were identified as drivers of aquatic injury risk. Strong evidence demonstrated positive exponential relationships between ambient air temperature > 22 °C and aquatic injury risk, with heatwaves representing periods of extreme risk. Humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, and rainfall act as exposure moderators, while wave heights of 0.5–1.5 m, wave periods > 6 s, and low water levels are associated with increased injury risk.

Discussion

Weather and ocean conditions are significant drivers of aquatic injury, constituting a growing climate-sensitive health risk. Climate change will disrupt weather patterns and intensify extreme events, simultaneously increasing human exposure to waterways and water-related hazard intensity. Despite projected increases in climate-driven aquatic injury, there is a paucity of research examining this critical intersection, underscoring an urgent need for targeted investigation and evidence-based adaptation strategies.