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Background <p>Alcohol-impaired driving is a well-established and preventable cause of road traffic deaths and injuries. This study examined national time trends in the relative burden of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury road traffic crashes in Türkiye between 2015 and 2024 and interpreted the findings within an ecological policy and enforcement context.</p> Methods <p>We conducted a national ecological time-trend analysis using annual aggregate road traffic crash statistics from the Turkish Statistical Institute for 2015–2024. The outcome was the annual count of alcohol-related crashes resulting in death or injury. To estimate changes in the relative burden over time, the natural logarithm of the annual total number of fatal-and-injury crashes was included as an offset. Temporal trends were first assessed using Poisson regression; after overdispersion was identified, estimates were re-evaluated using negative binomial regression. Results are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).</p> Results <p>The proportion of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury crashes among all fatal-and-injury crashes declined from 2.13% in 2015 to 0.72% in 2024. In the Poisson model, calendar year was negatively associated with the relative burden (IRR 0.883; 95% CI 0.880–0.887; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), although model fit indicated overdispersion. In the negative binomial model, the direction of the association remained negative but was not statistically significant (IRR 0.883; 95% CI 0.709–1.097; <i>p</i> = 0.260). Sensitivity analyses excluding 2020 alone and excluding both 2019 and 2020 yielded nearly identical estimates, indicating that the negative but non-significant trend was not materially driven by potentially atypical pandemic-period observations.</p> Conclusions <p>Descriptive data showed a marked decline in the relative burden of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury road traffic crashes in Türkiye from 2015 to 2024. However, negative binomial regression did not confirm a statistically significant temporal trend, indicating that model-based evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Interpretation should consider the ecological nature of the data and the possibility of time-varying enforcement intensity, detection, and reporting practices.</p>

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Alcohol-related fatal-and-injury traffic crashes in Türkiye (2015–2024): temporal trends and an ecological evaluation of alcohol control policies

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Omer Acat,
  • Okan İmre,
  • Osman Ulusal,
  • Sona Çağlar,
  • Fatih Kara

摘要

Background

Alcohol-impaired driving is a well-established and preventable cause of road traffic deaths and injuries. This study examined national time trends in the relative burden of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury road traffic crashes in Türkiye between 2015 and 2024 and interpreted the findings within an ecological policy and enforcement context.

Methods

We conducted a national ecological time-trend analysis using annual aggregate road traffic crash statistics from the Turkish Statistical Institute for 2015–2024. The outcome was the annual count of alcohol-related crashes resulting in death or injury. To estimate changes in the relative burden over time, the natural logarithm of the annual total number of fatal-and-injury crashes was included as an offset. Temporal trends were first assessed using Poisson regression; after overdispersion was identified, estimates were re-evaluated using negative binomial regression. Results are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

The proportion of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury crashes among all fatal-and-injury crashes declined from 2.13% in 2015 to 0.72% in 2024. In the Poisson model, calendar year was negatively associated with the relative burden (IRR 0.883; 95% CI 0.880–0.887; p < 0.001), although model fit indicated overdispersion. In the negative binomial model, the direction of the association remained negative but was not statistically significant (IRR 0.883; 95% CI 0.709–1.097; p = 0.260). Sensitivity analyses excluding 2020 alone and excluding both 2019 and 2020 yielded nearly identical estimates, indicating that the negative but non-significant trend was not materially driven by potentially atypical pandemic-period observations.

Conclusions

Descriptive data showed a marked decline in the relative burden of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury road traffic crashes in Türkiye from 2015 to 2024. However, negative binomial regression did not confirm a statistically significant temporal trend, indicating that model-based evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Interpretation should consider the ecological nature of the data and the possibility of time-varying enforcement intensity, detection, and reporting practices.