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Background <p>In January 2024, the flat consumption tax on non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands was increased from €8.83 per 100&#xa0;l to €26.13 per 100&#xa0;l. In various countries tiered taxes have been implemented. This study aims to assess the impact of flat and tiered taxes on sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from these beverages in the Netherlands for the year 2025.</p> Methods <p>For 2025, sales of non-alcoholic beverages (in litres) and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages (in kilograms) were estimated for six scenarios: (i) the previous lower-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€8.83 per 100&#xa0;l) (reference); (ii) the current higher-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€26.13 per 100&#xa0;l); and (iii) four possible tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxes based on the sugar content of the beverages. Model-based analyses were performed to estimate the non-alcohol beverages sales, using supermarket transaction data and taking into account autonomous growth and inflation. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of elasticity and product reformulation.</p> Results <p>Non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes in 2025 were estimated at 2,688.4&#xa0;million litres for the lower-rate tax scenario, 2,304.9&#xa0;million litres for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 1,982.0–2,060.7&#xa0;million litres for the tiered tax scenarios. Sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in 2025 were 136.8&#xa0;million kilograms for the lower-rate tax scenario, 117.8&#xa0;million kilograms for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 96.5–100.2&#xa0;million kilograms for the tiered tax scenarios. The higher-rate tax scenario was estimated to decrease non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 14.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 13.9% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario. The tiered tax scenarios decreased non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 23.4–26.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 26.7%–29.5% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario.</p> Conclusions <p>The implementation of tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxation could substantially decrease sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands, exceeding the impact of the flat consumption tax increase, and thereby potentially improving population health.</p>

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The impact of various forms of non-alcoholic beverage taxation on sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar in the Netherlands: a modelling study

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月18日

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  • Michelle Eykelenboom,
  • Marije Oosterhoff,
  • Ivon E. J. Milder,
  • Anoukh van Giessen

摘要

Background

In January 2024, the flat consumption tax on non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands was increased from €8.83 per 100 l to €26.13 per 100 l. In various countries tiered taxes have been implemented. This study aims to assess the impact of flat and tiered taxes on sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from these beverages in the Netherlands for the year 2025.

Methods

For 2025, sales of non-alcoholic beverages (in litres) and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages (in kilograms) were estimated for six scenarios: (i) the previous lower-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€8.83 per 100 l) (reference); (ii) the current higher-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€26.13 per 100 l); and (iii) four possible tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxes based on the sugar content of the beverages. Model-based analyses were performed to estimate the non-alcohol beverages sales, using supermarket transaction data and taking into account autonomous growth and inflation. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of elasticity and product reformulation.

Results

Non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes in 2025 were estimated at 2,688.4 million litres for the lower-rate tax scenario, 2,304.9 million litres for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 1,982.0–2,060.7 million litres for the tiered tax scenarios. Sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in 2025 were 136.8 million kilograms for the lower-rate tax scenario, 117.8 million kilograms for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 96.5–100.2 million kilograms for the tiered tax scenarios. The higher-rate tax scenario was estimated to decrease non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 14.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 13.9% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario. The tiered tax scenarios decreased non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 23.4–26.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 26.7%–29.5% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario.

Conclusions

The implementation of tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxation could substantially decrease sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands, exceeding the impact of the flat consumption tax increase, and thereby potentially improving population health.