A multilevel analysis of trends and predictors associated with teenage pregnancy in Tanzania (2004–2022): evidence from demographic and health surveys
摘要
Teenage pregnancy continues to be a significant public health concern that carries several health risks. This study assesses the trends of teenage pregnancy in Tanzania and identifies key individual and community factors influencing its occurrence.
MethodsThis study used a pooled weighted sample of 10,404 teenagers (aged 15–19) from four waves of the Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys. Given the complex survey design, a multilevel logistics regression model was used to examine the trends and predictors of teenage pregnancy from 2004 to 2022. Both fixed and random effects were estimated.
ResultsThe overall pooled weighted prevalence of teenage pregnancy was 24.1% (95%CI: 22.9–25.3) across all survey waves. The trends showed that between the years 2004/05 and 2010, the prevalence decreased from 26.0 to 22.8%, increased again to 26.7% in 2015/16, and once more, declined to 21.1% in 2022. The individual factors associated with a high rate of teenage pregnancy were increased age (AOR = 2.36, 95%CI: 2.22–2.50) and working (AOR = 1.34, 95%CI: 1.14–1.56). However, primary education (AOR = 0.70, 95%CI: 0.54–0.91), secondary or higher education (AOR = 0.13, 95%CI: 0.09–0.18), literate teenagers (AOR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.61–0.94) and socioeconomic status of richest quantile (AOR = 0.38, 95%CI: 0.27–0.54) were less likely to experience teenage pregnancy. Regarding community-level factors, high literacy communities (AOR = 0.79, 95%CI: 0.67–0.95) were less likely to experience teenage pregnancy, while rural settings (AOR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.02–1.31) exhibited higher odds.
ConclusionThe interplay between education, employment, and access to reproductive health services, ongoing disparities, particularly in rural settings and socio-economic contexts, is associated with a persistent prevalence of teenage pregnancy. Thus, continued efforts are paramount to addressing teenage pregnancy with a multi-dimensional approach at the individual, community, and policy levels.