Prioritizing vaccine introduction to China’s National Immunization Program: a multi-criteria decision analysis

To prioritize the introducing of new vaccines into China’s National Immunization Program (NIP) among 10 candidate vaccines across four classes.

We developed a vaccine value framework using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to simulate the introduction of new vaccines into NIP, covering 21 criteria encompassing six dimensions: safety, effectiveness, economy, innovation, accessibility, and appropriateness. Two decision scenarios were considered: Scenario One prioritized the four classes of vaccines, while Scenario Two identified specific vaccines within each class.

In the vaccine value framework, safety received the highest weight, while innovation received the lowest. The Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine was identified as a top priority for inclusion in NIP, followed by Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV), Haemophilus Influenzae Type B (HIB), and Rotavirus (RV) vaccines. The specific types are domestic bivalent HPV vaccine, imported 13-valent PCV vaccine, domestic HIB vaccine, and domestic RV vaccine. The results of the one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated robustness.

This study provides a transparent, comprehensive, and quantifiable vaccine value framework to aid decision-making for introducing new vaccines into China’s NIP. According to the MCDA results, HPV should be considered the top vaccine candidate for the NIP.