The present value of human life losses associated with COVID-19 and likely productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination in Madagascar

As of 3 March 2023, Madagascar had reported 1,422 deaths from COVID-19. Up to now, there hasn't been a study to estimate the Total Present Value of Human Life lost \(\left({TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}\right)\) $\left({\mathit{TPVHL}}_{\mathit{MADAGASCAR}}\right)$ , productivity losses, and potential productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination for use in advocacy. The study reported in this paper aimed to fill these information gaps.

The Human Capital Model (HCM) was used to estimate the \({TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}\) ${\mathit{TPVHL}}_{\mathit{MADAGASCAR}}$ , which is the sum of the discounted value of human life losses among individuals in seven different age groups. The Present Value of Human Life for each age group \(\left({PVHL}_{i}\right)\) $\left({\mathit{PVHL}}_i\right)$ was calculated by multiplying the discount factor, the undiscounted years of life, the non-health gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the number of COVID-19 deaths in that age group.

To test the robustness of the results, the HCM was rerun five times, assuming (i) a 5% discount rate, (ii) a 10% discount rate, (iii) Africa’s highest average life expectancy at birth of 78.76 years, (iv) the world's highest life expectancy of 88.17 years, (v) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 deaths as of 3 March 2023 in Madagascar, and assuming different levels of vaccine coverage: 100%, 70%, 60.93%, and 8.266%.

The 1,422 human lives lost due to COVID-19 had a \({TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}\) ${\mathit{TPVHL}}_{\mathit{MADAGASCAR}}$ of Int$ 46,331,412; and an average of Int$ 32,582 per human life. Re-estimation of the HCM, using (i) discount rates of 5% and 10% reduced \({TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}\) ${\mathit{TPVHL}}_{\mathit{MADAGASCAR}}$ by 23% and 53%, respectively; (ii) average life expectancies of 78.76 years and 88.17 years increased \({TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}\) ${\mathit{TPVHL}}_{\mathit{MADAGASCAR}}$ by 23.7% and 39.5%, respectively; (iii) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 augmented \({TPVHL}_{MADAGASCAR}\) ${\mathit{TPVHL}}_{\mathit{MADAGASCAR}}$ by 703%. Furthermore, it is estimated that vaccinating 70% of the target population could potentially save the country Int$ 1.1 billion, equivalent to 1.94% of the GDP.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant health and productivity losses for Madagascar. Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination coverage for the target population could substantially reduce these losses.