Unraveling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality trends in Belgium between 2020–2022

Over the past four years, the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on public health, including on mortality trends. This study investigates mortality patterns in Belgium by examining all-cause mortality, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality.

We retrieved all-cause mortality data from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2022, stratified by age group and sex. A linear mixed model, informed by all-cause mortality from 2009 to 2019, was used to predict non-pandemic all-cause mortality rates in 2020–2022 and estimate excess mortality. Further, we also analyzed trends in cause-specific and premature mortality.

Different all-cause mortality patterns could be observed between the younger (<45 years) and older age groups. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was particularly evident among older age groups. The highest excess mortality occurred in 2020, while a reversal in this trend was evident in 2022. We observed a notable effect of COVID-19 on cause-specific and premature mortality patterns over the three-year period.

Despite a consistent decline in COVID-19 reported mortality over this three-year period, it remains imperative to meticulously monitor mortality trends in the years ahead.