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Background <p>Pancreatic cancer in China exhibits high incidence and mortality rates, and they have been on a continuous upward trend over time, imposing a significant disease burden. It is essential to clarify the trends in pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends up to 2050, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.</p> Methods <p>The pancreatic cancer data from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool. In this study, the incidence rate, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and related risk factor data of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted. The age-period-cohort (BAPC) Bayesian model was adopted to predict the age-standardized rate trend of the disease burden from 2021 to 2050, and the uncertainty of the historical estimation of GBD was incorporated into the prediction. Trend analysis uses Joinpoint regression to calculate the average annual percentage change. The model parameter Settings (such as the maximum number of connection points and prior distribution) and the standard population basis all follow the norms to ensure the comparability and repeatability of the results.</p> Results <p>In 2021, the number of incident cases, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) showed an increasing trend, reaching 118,665.43 cases (94,622.75–144,663.08), 119,601.86 cases (95,653.59–145,218.13), and 2,930,317.01 cases (2,301,048.70–3,575,078.95) person-years, respectively. Over the 30-year period, the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for incidence, deaths, and DALYs were 3.13% (3.08–3.18), 3.06% (2.79–3.33), and 2.53% (2.31–2.75), respectively. The Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASMR), and Age-Standardized DALY Rate were 5.64 per 100,000 (4.52–6.84), 5.72 per 100,000 (4.59–6.91), and 137.23 per 100,000 (108.15–166.74), respectively. However, from 1990 to 2021, the average age-standardized incidence, death, and DALY rates in China increased by 2.14% (1.27–3.19), 2.08% (1.22–3.10), and 1.62% (0.87–2.52), respectively. Analysis of risk factors for pancreatic cancer revealed that from 1990 to 2021, high fasting plasma glucose surpassed smoking as the leading risk factor, with high body-mass index ranking third. Gender-specific analysis showed that incidence, mortality, and DALY rates were higher in males than females. Population data projections from 2021 to 2050 indicate that the actual disease burden of pancreatic cancer in the next 30&#xa0;years may be higher than the predicted value in this study.</p> Conclusion <p>This study comprehensively compares differences in the disease burden across populations and over time, providing further evidence for the development of pancreatic cancer prevention and control policies and etiological research.</p>

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Burdens of pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050 in China: findings from the 2021 global burden of disease study

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月31日

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  • Feng Yang,
  • Jingyuan Bian,
  • Xuxu He,
  • Dong Xu

摘要

Background

Pancreatic cancer in China exhibits high incidence and mortality rates, and they have been on a continuous upward trend over time, imposing a significant disease burden. It is essential to clarify the trends in pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends up to 2050, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.

Methods

The pancreatic cancer data from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool. In this study, the incidence rate, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and related risk factor data of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted. The age-period-cohort (BAPC) Bayesian model was adopted to predict the age-standardized rate trend of the disease burden from 2021 to 2050, and the uncertainty of the historical estimation of GBD was incorporated into the prediction. Trend analysis uses Joinpoint regression to calculate the average annual percentage change. The model parameter Settings (such as the maximum number of connection points and prior distribution) and the standard population basis all follow the norms to ensure the comparability and repeatability of the results.

Results

In 2021, the number of incident cases, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) showed an increasing trend, reaching 118,665.43 cases (94,622.75–144,663.08), 119,601.86 cases (95,653.59–145,218.13), and 2,930,317.01 cases (2,301,048.70–3,575,078.95) person-years, respectively. Over the 30-year period, the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for incidence, deaths, and DALYs were 3.13% (3.08–3.18), 3.06% (2.79–3.33), and 2.53% (2.31–2.75), respectively. The Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASMR), and Age-Standardized DALY Rate were 5.64 per 100,000 (4.52–6.84), 5.72 per 100,000 (4.59–6.91), and 137.23 per 100,000 (108.15–166.74), respectively. However, from 1990 to 2021, the average age-standardized incidence, death, and DALY rates in China increased by 2.14% (1.27–3.19), 2.08% (1.22–3.10), and 1.62% (0.87–2.52), respectively. Analysis of risk factors for pancreatic cancer revealed that from 1990 to 2021, high fasting plasma glucose surpassed smoking as the leading risk factor, with high body-mass index ranking third. Gender-specific analysis showed that incidence, mortality, and DALY rates were higher in males than females. Population data projections from 2021 to 2050 indicate that the actual disease burden of pancreatic cancer in the next 30 years may be higher than the predicted value in this study.

Conclusion

This study comprehensively compares differences in the disease burden across populations and over time, providing further evidence for the development of pancreatic cancer prevention and control policies and etiological research.