Evidence for the prognostic value of TP53 mutations in circulating tumor DNA across solid malignancies: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The purpose of this meta-analysis study is to provide evidence for the clinical utility of TP53 mutations in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a prognostic biomarker.

We searched the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases (last update May 2025) for studies on TP53 mutations in ctDNA or cfDNA as prognosis overall survival and in solid tumors. A total of 21 studies that met the criteria were utilized and data was collected regarding the authors, year of publication, study design, site of the study, number of patients, detection, mutation sample size and outcome measures were collected. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to evaluate the quality of the study, and meta-analysis was done by using STATA 16.0. Effect sizes were in the form of hazard ratios (HR) that had 95% confidence intervals (CI). The models used were fixed-effects and random-effects based on heterogeneity. Funnel plots, and Egger’s test was used to measure publication bias, and sensitivity analysis conducted through a leave-one-out method.

A total of 21 studies (2,685 TP53-mutated patients, one unreported) showed: Mutated patients had worse progression-free survival (PFS) (HR=2.10, p=0.000; 12 studies, heterogeneity resolved after excluding Yoshida 2023), shorter OS (HR=1.74, p=0.014; 9 studies), and reduced DFS (HR=1.73, p=0.007; 3 studies), but RFS (2 items) showed no statistically significant differences. Subgroup analyses revealed: Prospective studies showed stronger PFS (HR=2.14 vs retrospective 1.90) with Japanese subgroup HR=4.90; Lung/liver cancers had higher HRs than breast. Prospective OS HR=2.25 (lung 3.14, endometrial 0.75). Retrospective DFS HR=1.89 vs Japanese breast RFS HR=4.00. Heterogeneity originated from study design, region, and cancer type variations, with no significant publication bias (Egger's test p>0.05).

Current evidence suggests that TP53 mutations detected in ctDNA are significantly associated with poor prognosis in various solid tumors, particularly lung cancer. The association is robust for PFS and OS, though high heterogeneity and biological complexity warrant cautious interpretation. These findings support the potential incorporation of ctDNA-based TP53 mutation status into clinical prognostic assessment systems as an adjunctive parameter; however, further standardization of detection protocols, functional annotation of mutation types (e.g., LOF vs. GOF), incorporation of VAF and clonality analysis, and validation in large prospective multicenter cohorts are needed before routine clinical implementation.

CRD420251021095