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Background <p>The role of triglyceride-glucose (TyG) as a metabolic index in the prognosis of radical esophageal cancer remains underexplored. This study evaluated the association between TyG and postoperative prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and developed a metabolic-inflammatory-nutritional (MIN) scoring model to improve prognostic assessment.</p> Materials and methods <p>This study retrospectively analyzed 434 ESCC patients who underwent radical esophagectomy, divided into development and internal validation cohorts. A MIN score was constructed using LASSO-Cox regression, and a nomogram was developed. Performance was evaluated using C-index, ROC curves, calibration, and decision curve analysis.</p> Results <p>The preoperative TyG index was an independent protective factor for overall survival (<i>HR</i> = 0.44, 95% <i>CI</i>: 0.30–0.64, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). The MIN score showed good discriminative ability in the derivation cohort, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUC values of 0.749, 0.752, and 0.760, respectively, and maintained robust performance in the validation cohort (AUC: 0.747, 0.724, and 0.728). The nomogram incorporating the MIN score, age, sex, and TNM stage achieved excellent discrimination, with C-indices of 0.832 in the derivation cohort and 0.799 in the validation cohort.</p> Conclusion <p>The preoperative TyG index is a protective prognostic factor in ESCC. The MIN score and nomogram provide a robust tool for individualized prognosis prediction, complementing TNM staging.</p>

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Development and validation of a metabolic-inflammatory-nutritional prognostic model for esophageal squamous carcinoma

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月15日

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  • Ruiqi Chen,
  • Yun Ding,
  • Lilan Zhao,
  • Zhaojun Yu,
  • Juan Zhang,
  • Zijie He,
  • Songyu Cai,
  • Genglin Li,
  • Tianxing Guo,
  • Wenshu Chen,
  • Xiaojie Pan

摘要

Background

The role of triglyceride-glucose (TyG) as a metabolic index in the prognosis of radical esophageal cancer remains underexplored. This study evaluated the association between TyG and postoperative prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and developed a metabolic-inflammatory-nutritional (MIN) scoring model to improve prognostic assessment.

Materials and methods

This study retrospectively analyzed 434 ESCC patients who underwent radical esophagectomy, divided into development and internal validation cohorts. A MIN score was constructed using LASSO-Cox regression, and a nomogram was developed. Performance was evaluated using C-index, ROC curves, calibration, and decision curve analysis.

Results

The preoperative TyG index was an independent protective factor for overall survival (HR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.30–0.64, P < 0.001). The MIN score showed good discriminative ability in the derivation cohort, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUC values of 0.749, 0.752, and 0.760, respectively, and maintained robust performance in the validation cohort (AUC: 0.747, 0.724, and 0.728). The nomogram incorporating the MIN score, age, sex, and TNM stage achieved excellent discrimination, with C-indices of 0.832 in the derivation cohort and 0.799 in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

The preoperative TyG index is a protective prognostic factor in ESCC. The MIN score and nomogram provide a robust tool for individualized prognosis prediction, complementing TNM staging.