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Background <p>To analyze trends in liver cancer mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021, which are currently unknown.</p> Methods <p>In accordance with the standardisation of liver cancer mortality rates obtained from the “Causes of Illness, Injury, and Death Among Residents” section of the <i>China Health Statistics Yearbook</i> (2002–2021), these rates were analysed for temporal trends using the Joinpoint regression model. A subsequent cohort analysis was conducted using an age-period-cohort (APC) model to investigate the impact of age, period, and birth cohort on these changes.</p> Results <p>Over the 20-year evaluation period, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer among Chinese residents exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with rural residents experiencing a faster decline than urban residents (AAPC of -2.9 and − 2.7, respectively; <i>P</i> &lt; 0.05). However, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer was higher among rural residents than among those from urban areas and was higher among males than among females. Liver cancer standardised mortality rate exhibited an increasing trend with respect to age. Regarding the cohort effect, liver cancer mortality gradually decreased in more recent birth cohorts.</p> Conclusion <p>In recent years, the mortality rate of liver cancer among Chinese residents has generally declined; however, it remains relatively high, especially in rural individuals and middle-aged men. Vaccination of hepatitis virus, clean drinking water and healthy foods, regular physical examinations, good lifestyle habits, and improved medical standards are the keys to reducing the risk of liver cancer-related death in China.</p>

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Trend analysis of liver cancer mortality in Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月7日

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  • Yuxin Wang,
  • Miao Lu,
  • Xu Su,
  • Chunying Cui,
  • Wei Zhang,
  • Guoping Wang

摘要

Background

To analyze trends in liver cancer mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021, which are currently unknown.

Methods

In accordance with the standardisation of liver cancer mortality rates obtained from the “Causes of Illness, Injury, and Death Among Residents” section of the China Health Statistics Yearbook (2002–2021), these rates were analysed for temporal trends using the Joinpoint regression model. A subsequent cohort analysis was conducted using an age-period-cohort (APC) model to investigate the impact of age, period, and birth cohort on these changes.

Results

Over the 20-year evaluation period, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer among Chinese residents exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with rural residents experiencing a faster decline than urban residents (AAPC of -2.9 and − 2.7, respectively; P < 0.05). However, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer was higher among rural residents than among those from urban areas and was higher among males than among females. Liver cancer standardised mortality rate exhibited an increasing trend with respect to age. Regarding the cohort effect, liver cancer mortality gradually decreased in more recent birth cohorts.

Conclusion

In recent years, the mortality rate of liver cancer among Chinese residents has generally declined; however, it remains relatively high, especially in rural individuals and middle-aged men. Vaccination of hepatitis virus, clean drinking water and healthy foods, regular physical examinations, good lifestyle habits, and improved medical standards are the keys to reducing the risk of liver cancer-related death in China.