Background <p>Metastatic liver tumor burden (LTB) is a prognostic factor affecting the survival of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs), but evaluation of the LTB usually depends on radiologic and functional imaging. This study aimed to develop a clinical model based on easily accessible clinicopathological markers to predict LTB level in GEP-NET patients.</p> Methods <p>LTB was quantified based on <sup>68</sup>Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT scan. The optimal cut-off value for high and low-LTB was determined based on our previous study. Serum levels of liver enzymes and tumor biomarkers were obtained within one week before PET/CT scan. The whole dataset was divided into training set and validation set. LASSO regression method was used to select predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a clinical model which was further visualized by constructing a nomogram. Area under the curve (AUC) was applied to assess the accuracy of the constructed model.</p> Results <p>We retrospectively enrolled 200 patients with well-differentiated GEP-NETs. Ki-67 index, GGT (gamma-glutamyltransferase), LDH (lactate dehydrogenase), and NSE (neuron-specific enolase) were selected through the LASSO regression method, and a nomogram was built based on these variables. The predictive model yielded an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI, [0.708–0.862]) in the training set, and 0.783 (95% CI, [0.644–0.923]) in the validation set. Additionally, with the optimal cut-off values based on the nomogram total points, patients were categorized as LTB<sup>high</sup> (total points ≥ 26.2) and LTB<sup>low</sup> (total points &lt; 26.2) groups presenting significantly different OS.</p> Conclusion <p>A clinically applicable nomogram incorporating four clinicopathological characteristics was constructed to predict GEP-NET patients with high-LTB. The nomogram may help clinicians identify patients with high-LTB and take optimal treatment measures to improve prognosis.</p>

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Identification of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumor patients with high liver tumor burden based on clinicopathological features

  • Nuerailaguli Jumai,
  • Luohai Chen,
  • Xiaoxuan Lin,
  • Qiao He,
  • Man Liu,
  • Yuan Lin,
  • Yanji Luo,
  • Yu Wang,
  • Min-hu Chen,
  • Xiangsong Zhang,
  • Zhirong Zeng,
  • Ning Zhang

摘要

Background

Metastatic liver tumor burden (LTB) is a prognostic factor affecting the survival of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs), but evaluation of the LTB usually depends on radiologic and functional imaging. This study aimed to develop a clinical model based on easily accessible clinicopathological markers to predict LTB level in GEP-NET patients.

Methods

LTB was quantified based on 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT scan. The optimal cut-off value for high and low-LTB was determined based on our previous study. Serum levels of liver enzymes and tumor biomarkers were obtained within one week before PET/CT scan. The whole dataset was divided into training set and validation set. LASSO regression method was used to select predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a clinical model which was further visualized by constructing a nomogram. Area under the curve (AUC) was applied to assess the accuracy of the constructed model.

Results

We retrospectively enrolled 200 patients with well-differentiated GEP-NETs. Ki-67 index, GGT (gamma-glutamyltransferase), LDH (lactate dehydrogenase), and NSE (neuron-specific enolase) were selected through the LASSO regression method, and a nomogram was built based on these variables. The predictive model yielded an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI, [0.708–0.862]) in the training set, and 0.783 (95% CI, [0.644–0.923]) in the validation set. Additionally, with the optimal cut-off values based on the nomogram total points, patients were categorized as LTBhigh (total points ≥ 26.2) and LTBlow (total points < 26.2) groups presenting significantly different OS.

Conclusion

A clinically applicable nomogram incorporating four clinicopathological characteristics was constructed to predict GEP-NET patients with high-LTB. The nomogram may help clinicians identify patients with high-LTB and take optimal treatment measures to improve prognosis.