Mid-upper arm circumference predicts the risk of gestational diabetes in early pregnancy

The present work aimed to assess the value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) at 8 to 12 weeks in predicting the occurrence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

According to eligibility criteria, 328 women with singleton pregnancies who underwent routine antenatal check-ups at Qinhuangdao Maternal and Child Health Hospital from September 2017 to September 2020 were included. The patients were divided into the gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and non-GDM groups according to oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) data from gestation weeks 24 to 28. Clinical data were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine factors independently predicting GDM. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was employed to analyze the value of MUAC in predicting the occurrence of GDM. The optimal cut-off points were calculated.

In logistic regression analysis, pre-pregnancy weight, waist circumference, MUAC, UA, TG, and HDL-C independently predicted the occurrence of GDM (P < 0.05). MUAC retained statistical significance upon adjustment for various confounders (OR = 8.851, 95%CI: 3.907–20.048; P < 0.001). ROC curve analysis revealed good diagnostic potential for MUAC in GDM (AUC = 0.742, 95%CI: 0.684–0.800, P < 0.001), with a cut-off of 28.5 cm, sensitivity and specificity were 61% and 77%, respectively.

Pregnant women with MUAC >28.5 cm are prone to develop GDM during pregnancy, indicating that MUAC as an important predictive factor of GDM in early pregnancy.