MRI-based clinical-radiomics nomogram to predict early neurological deterioration in isolated acute pontine infarction: a two-center study in Northeast China

To predict the appearance of early neurological deterioration (END) among patients with isolated acute pontine infarction (API) based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived radiomics of the infarct site.

544 patients with isolated API were recruited from two centers and divided into the training set (n = 344) and the verification set (n = 200). In total, 1702 radiomics characteristics were extracted from each patient. A support vector machine algorithm was used to construct a radiomics signature (rad-score). Subsequently, univariate and multivariate logistic regression (LR) analysis was adopted to filter clinical indicators and establish clinical models. Then, based on the LR algorithm, the rad-score and clinical indicators were integrated to construct the clinical-radiomics model, which was compared with other models.

A clinical-radiomics model was established, including the 5 indicators rad-score, age, initial systolic blood pressure, initial National Institute of Health Stroke Scale, and triglyceride. A nomogram was then made based on the model. The nomogram had good predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.966 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.947–0.985) and 0.920 (95% [CI] 0.873–0.967) in the training and verification sets, respectively. According to the decision curve analysis, the clinical-radiomics model showed better clinical value than the other models. In addition, the calibration curves also showed that the model has excellent consistency.

The clinical-radiomics model combined MRI-derived radiomics and clinical metrics and may serve as a scoring tool for early prediction of END among patients with isolated API.