Scholarlink

Objective <p>Investigating the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of the main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fujian Province, China, through spatiotemporal feature analysis and the construction of a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM).</p> Methods <p>HFMD and its major pathogens enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) data from January 2017 to December 2020 in Fujian Province were obtained through the statutory infectious disease reporting surveillance system of China, and meteorological data were obtained from the national scientific meteorological data center of China. Correlation analysis was used to select meteorological variables. DLNM was constructed to investigate the impact of meteorological factors on the prevalence of EV71 and CV-A16.</p> Results <p>During the study period, a total of 261,434 confirmed cases of HFMD were reported in Fujian Province, with an annual incidence rate ranging from 67.62 to 243.57 per 100,000 population. The temporal distribution indicated a bimodal pattern of HFMD cases from 2017 to 2019. In 2020, HFMD cases and incidence rate significantly decreased. Spatial distribution analysis revealed that infections were predominantly concentrated in the southwestern region of Fujian, and a decreasing trend in incidence rate with increasing latitude. Correlation analysis indicated that the highest temperature (Tmax), lowest temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (MT), precipitation (PRE) and relative humidity (RHU) were positively correlated with infections, while atmospheric pressure (PRS) was negatively correlated. Analysis results from the DLNM showed that the relative risk of EV71 and CV-A16 associated with MT across various prefecture-level cities in Fujian exhibited an inverted “U” shape or a linear relationship, with a “harvesting” phenomenon observed at low MT levels.</p> Conclusion <p>The impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of EV71 and CV-A16 exhibits spatial heterogeneity. Low MT can promote viral epidemics in the short term.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease caused by major enterovirus pathogens: a distributed lag nonlinear analysis in Fujian Province, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月20日

查看全文
  • Qiuping Fan,
  • Yunfan Zhang,
  • Yuanzhen Zhang,
  • Yi Chen,
  • Guimei Cai,
  • Yuxian Tang,
  • Yongqiang Yu,
  • Zuquan Weng,
  • Wei Yuan,
  • Naipeng Kan,
  • Xiaojing Nie

摘要

Objective

Investigating the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of the main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fujian Province, China, through spatiotemporal feature analysis and the construction of a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM).

Methods

HFMD and its major pathogens enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) data from January 2017 to December 2020 in Fujian Province were obtained through the statutory infectious disease reporting surveillance system of China, and meteorological data were obtained from the national scientific meteorological data center of China. Correlation analysis was used to select meteorological variables. DLNM was constructed to investigate the impact of meteorological factors on the prevalence of EV71 and CV-A16.

Results

During the study period, a total of 261,434 confirmed cases of HFMD were reported in Fujian Province, with an annual incidence rate ranging from 67.62 to 243.57 per 100,000 population. The temporal distribution indicated a bimodal pattern of HFMD cases from 2017 to 2019. In 2020, HFMD cases and incidence rate significantly decreased. Spatial distribution analysis revealed that infections were predominantly concentrated in the southwestern region of Fujian, and a decreasing trend in incidence rate with increasing latitude. Correlation analysis indicated that the highest temperature (Tmax), lowest temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (MT), precipitation (PRE) and relative humidity (RHU) were positively correlated with infections, while atmospheric pressure (PRS) was negatively correlated. Analysis results from the DLNM showed that the relative risk of EV71 and CV-A16 associated with MT across various prefecture-level cities in Fujian exhibited an inverted “U” shape or a linear relationship, with a “harvesting” phenomenon observed at low MT levels.

Conclusion

The impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of EV71 and CV-A16 exhibits spatial heterogeneity. Low MT can promote viral epidemics in the short term.