Scholarlink

Background <p>Cardiogenic shock (CS) and chronic ischemic heart disease (CIHD) remain major contributors to cardiovascular mortality in the United States. Although mortality related to ischemic disease declined in the early 2000s, recent trends suggest a resurgence.</p> Methods <p>This population-based study utilized the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-Ranging OnLine Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database from 1999 to 2023. Deaths were identified using ICD-10 codes R57.0 (CS) and I25 (CIHD). Adults aged ≥ 45 years were included. Crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated, with temporal changes assessed using Joinpoint regression to estimate Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC).</p> Results <p>Between 1999 and 2023, deaths attributed to CS and CIHD accounted for 78,903 cases among adults ≥ 45 years. Overall AAMR ranged from 35.88 per million in 1999 to 37.44 per million in 2023, with a downward trend from 1999 to 2012 followed by an upward trend thereafter. Males (51,080 deaths) exhibited rising mortality (AAPC: +0.50, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), while females (27,823 deaths) showed a decline (AAPC: − 0.91, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.0004). Non-Hispanic Black adults demonstrated the steepest increase (AAPC: +1.85, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). The burden was greatest in adults ≥ 65 years, but the 45–64 group showed the fastest rise (AAPC: +1.67, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001).</p> Conclusion <p>Mortality from cardiogenic shock and chronic ischemic heart disease among U.S. adults ≥ 45 years declined initially but reversed after 2012. Rising mortality in middle-aged adults, persistent racial disparities, and geographic inequities highlight urgent gaps in prevention and acute care.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Temporal and demographic trends in cardiogenic shock and chronic ischemic heart disease-related mortality among U.S adults aged 45 years and older: a 25 year nationwide analysis with ARIMA forecasting

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月17日

查看全文
  • Faizan Ahmed,
  • Muhammad Abdullah,
  • Haris Bin Tahir,
  • Bilal Qammar,
  • Muhammad Shees Hunain,
  • Haider Hussain Shah,
  • Madeeha Shafqat,
  • Shiraz Aslam,
  • Taha Alam,
  • Tehmasp Rehman Mirza,
  • Dinesh Kumar,
  • Abdul Waheed,
  • Mohammad Amir Hossain,
  • Mohammad Omar Butt,
  • Fawaz Alenezi

摘要

Background

Cardiogenic shock (CS) and chronic ischemic heart disease (CIHD) remain major contributors to cardiovascular mortality in the United States. Although mortality related to ischemic disease declined in the early 2000s, recent trends suggest a resurgence.

Methods

This population-based study utilized the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-Ranging OnLine Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database from 1999 to 2023. Deaths were identified using ICD-10 codes R57.0 (CS) and I25 (CIHD). Adults aged ≥ 45 years were included. Crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated, with temporal changes assessed using Joinpoint regression to estimate Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC).

Results

Between 1999 and 2023, deaths attributed to CS and CIHD accounted for 78,903 cases among adults ≥ 45 years. Overall AAMR ranged from 35.88 per million in 1999 to 37.44 per million in 2023, with a downward trend from 1999 to 2012 followed by an upward trend thereafter. Males (51,080 deaths) exhibited rising mortality (AAPC: +0.50, p < 0.001), while females (27,823 deaths) showed a decline (AAPC: − 0.91, p < 0.0004). Non-Hispanic Black adults demonstrated the steepest increase (AAPC: +1.85, p < 0.001). The burden was greatest in adults ≥ 65 years, but the 45–64 group showed the fastest rise (AAPC: +1.67, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Mortality from cardiogenic shock and chronic ischemic heart disease among U.S. adults ≥ 45 years declined initially but reversed after 2012. Rising mortality in middle-aged adults, persistent racial disparities, and geographic inequities highlight urgent gaps in prevention and acute care.