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Objective <p>To construct and validate a risk prediction model for the occurrence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients. The aim is to provide a visual predictive assessment tool for abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients and to assist in identifying high-risk populations for abdominal aortic calcification.</p> Methods <p>This study extracted data from the 2013–2014 NHANES database, including 1,564 middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients who met the inclusion criteria. Group comparisons were performed using the independent sample t-test or the Mann-Whitney rank sum test, based on the distribution of continuous variables. Categorical variables were presented as counts and percentages, with group comparisons conducted using the Chi-square test. LASSO regression and logistic regression were employed to explore the risk factors for extensive abdominal aortic calcification in hypertensive patients and to construct a nomogram prediction model. Calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model’s predictive performance and clinical applicability.</p> Results <p>A total of 1,564 middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients meeting the study criteria were selected from the 2013–2014 NHANES database. The study identified several significant factors influencing the occurrence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in this population, including Age, BMI, marital status, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, stroke, alcohol consumption, and sleep duration. The constructed prediction model had an AUC of 0.806, a Brier score of 0.115, and a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test result of (X2 = 14.180, <i>P</i>-value = 0.077). Internal validation using bootstrap resampling (500 iterations) resulted in a C-statistic of 0.798 and a Brier score of 0.182, indicating good prediction stability. The DCA decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical applicability of the nomogram.</p> Conclusion <p>This study developed a risk prediction model for the occurrence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients, confirming the model’s high clinical applicability and stability. The model can assist in identifying high-risk individuals for abdominal aortic calcification in this population, enabling clinical intervention to reduce the incidence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients.</p>

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Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for extensive abdominal aortic calcification in hypertensive patients aged 40 and above: a cross-sectional study based on the 2013–2014 NHANES database

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月4日

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  • Shanbing Hou,
  • Ying Jiang,
  • Fangfang Zhao,
  • Zixuan Wei,
  • Tingting Wang,
  • Jing Chen,
  • Min Dou,
  • Lixiang Zhang

摘要

Objective

To construct and validate a risk prediction model for the occurrence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients. The aim is to provide a visual predictive assessment tool for abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients and to assist in identifying high-risk populations for abdominal aortic calcification.

Methods

This study extracted data from the 2013–2014 NHANES database, including 1,564 middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients who met the inclusion criteria. Group comparisons were performed using the independent sample t-test or the Mann-Whitney rank sum test, based on the distribution of continuous variables. Categorical variables were presented as counts and percentages, with group comparisons conducted using the Chi-square test. LASSO regression and logistic regression were employed to explore the risk factors for extensive abdominal aortic calcification in hypertensive patients and to construct a nomogram prediction model. Calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model’s predictive performance and clinical applicability.

Results

A total of 1,564 middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients meeting the study criteria were selected from the 2013–2014 NHANES database. The study identified several significant factors influencing the occurrence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in this population, including Age, BMI, marital status, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, stroke, alcohol consumption, and sleep duration. The constructed prediction model had an AUC of 0.806, a Brier score of 0.115, and a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test result of (X2 = 14.180, P-value = 0.077). Internal validation using bootstrap resampling (500 iterations) resulted in a C-statistic of 0.798 and a Brier score of 0.182, indicating good prediction stability. The DCA decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical applicability of the nomogram.

Conclusion

This study developed a risk prediction model for the occurrence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients, confirming the model’s high clinical applicability and stability. The model can assist in identifying high-risk individuals for abdominal aortic calcification in this population, enabling clinical intervention to reduce the incidence of extensive abdominal aortic calcification in middle-aged and elderly hypertensive patients.