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Background <p>Unplanned postoperative intensive care unit admissions (UIAs) are rare events that cause significant challenges to perioperative workflow. We describe the development of a machine-learning derived model to predict UIAs using only widely used preoperative variables.</p> Methods <p>This was a 3-year retrospective review of all adult surgeries under the General, Vascular, and Thoracic surgical services with anticipated length of greater than 180&#xa0;minutes at a single institution. A UIA was defined as any post-operative patient recovering in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) requiring direct transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) for higher level of care. We developed our prediction model with a gradient-boosting decision tree algorithm (XGBoost). The model incorporated sixteen generalizable predictor variables that were derived from the demographics and surgical booking details. Validation and evaluation were performed with 10-fold cross validation, and model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio.</p> Results <p>A total of 4658 patients were included for analysis. The incidence of UIAs was 2.3%. With 10-fold cross validation, the area under the ROC curve was 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.86). Two decision thresholds were used, which achieved the best specificity of 94% (95% CI 92–96%), best positive likelihood ratio of 4.22 (95% CI 0.99–8.79), and best sensitivity of 82% (95% CI 58–100%).</p> Conclusions <p>Our machine learning-derived model is a reliable tool for the perioperative clinician to predict a rare outcome in high-risk patients using only preoperative variables. Future studies will include prospective validation of this model at other institutions and real-time incorporation for improvement in perioperative workflow.</p>

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Development of a machine learning-derived model to predict unplanned ICU admissions after major non-cardiac surgery

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月17日

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  • Catherine Chiu,
  • Matthias R. Braehler,
  • Anne L. Donovan,
  • Atul J. Butte,
  • Romain Pirracchio,
  • Andrew M. Bishara

摘要

Background

Unplanned postoperative intensive care unit admissions (UIAs) are rare events that cause significant challenges to perioperative workflow. We describe the development of a machine-learning derived model to predict UIAs using only widely used preoperative variables.

Methods

This was a 3-year retrospective review of all adult surgeries under the General, Vascular, and Thoracic surgical services with anticipated length of greater than 180 minutes at a single institution. A UIA was defined as any post-operative patient recovering in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) requiring direct transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) for higher level of care. We developed our prediction model with a gradient-boosting decision tree algorithm (XGBoost). The model incorporated sixteen generalizable predictor variables that were derived from the demographics and surgical booking details. Validation and evaluation were performed with 10-fold cross validation, and model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio.

Results

A total of 4658 patients were included for analysis. The incidence of UIAs was 2.3%. With 10-fold cross validation, the area under the ROC curve was 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.86). Two decision thresholds were used, which achieved the best specificity of 94% (95% CI 92–96%), best positive likelihood ratio of 4.22 (95% CI 0.99–8.79), and best sensitivity of 82% (95% CI 58–100%).

Conclusions

Our machine learning-derived model is a reliable tool for the perioperative clinician to predict a rare outcome in high-risk patients using only preoperative variables. Future studies will include prospective validation of this model at other institutions and real-time incorporation for improvement in perioperative workflow.