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<p>To meet carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, regional land use and carbon storage show changing trends under different scenarios. We analyzed land use changes in the Chishui River Basin (CRB) from 2000 to 2020.Using this and four scenarios, we explore the spatiotemporal evolution trends of carbon storage. We use the InVEST and PLUS models, we simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2040. We also assess carbon storage and its spatiotemporal change trends over the 40-year period. We found that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the land use types in the CRB were mainly cropland (CL) and forestland (FL). Together, they made up about 91.68% of the total area. However, construction land (CSL) continued to expand. Grassland (GL), water area (WA), and unused land (UL) were occupied during this process. (2) Carbon storage in the CRB was mainly from FL, followed by CL. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage values were 2.903 × 10⁸ t in 2000, 2.910 × 10⁸ t in 2005, 2.913 × 10⁸ t in 2010, 2.912 × 10⁸ t in 2015, and 2.908 × 10⁸ t in 2020. The trend showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. Overall, carbon storage increased by 0.167% (4.841 × 105 t), reaching a peak in 2010. (4) In 2040, there were significant differences among the four scenarios. The transition between FL and CSL led to changes in carbon storage. Under the natural development scenario (NDS) and the ecological protection scenario (EPS), carbon storage increased by 5.682 × 105 t and 1.578 × 10⁶ t, respectively. Under the cropland protection scenario (CPS) and the urban development scenario (UDS), carbon storage decreased by 2.342 × 105 t and 1.271 × 10⁶ t, respectively. The study found that carbon storage was low in the south and west, and high in the east and north. These findings will provide recommendations for future land use planning and ecological protection strategies in the CRB.</p>

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Multi-scenario simulation of carbon storage in the Chishui River Basin, a major tributary of the Yangtze River in Southwest China, from a “Dual Carbon” perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月27日

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  • Wei Yuan,
  • Tingyi Hu,
  • Yishan Qing

摘要

To meet carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, regional land use and carbon storage show changing trends under different scenarios. We analyzed land use changes in the Chishui River Basin (CRB) from 2000 to 2020.Using this and four scenarios, we explore the spatiotemporal evolution trends of carbon storage. We use the InVEST and PLUS models, we simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2040. We also assess carbon storage and its spatiotemporal change trends over the 40-year period. We found that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the land use types in the CRB were mainly cropland (CL) and forestland (FL). Together, they made up about 91.68% of the total area. However, construction land (CSL) continued to expand. Grassland (GL), water area (WA), and unused land (UL) were occupied during this process. (2) Carbon storage in the CRB was mainly from FL, followed by CL. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage values were 2.903 × 10⁸ t in 2000, 2.910 × 10⁸ t in 2005, 2.913 × 10⁸ t in 2010, 2.912 × 10⁸ t in 2015, and 2.908 × 10⁸ t in 2020. The trend showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. Overall, carbon storage increased by 0.167% (4.841 × 105 t), reaching a peak in 2010. (4) In 2040, there were significant differences among the four scenarios. The transition between FL and CSL led to changes in carbon storage. Under the natural development scenario (NDS) and the ecological protection scenario (EPS), carbon storage increased by 5.682 × 105 t and 1.578 × 10⁶ t, respectively. Under the cropland protection scenario (CPS) and the urban development scenario (UDS), carbon storage decreased by 2.342 × 105 t and 1.271 × 10⁶ t, respectively. The study found that carbon storage was low in the south and west, and high in the east and north. These findings will provide recommendations for future land use planning and ecological protection strategies in the CRB.